Do You Remember the Game King Of The Hill?

As a young child, I remember playing the game “King of the Hill, which is a brilliant metaphor that perfectly captures the ProcureTech market dynamics we’ve been analyzing in the past few posts. Let me break down the King of the Hill game mechanics and their striking parallels to ProcureTech market positioning:

King of the Hill: Game Mechanics

Core Challenge:

• Objective: Reach and maintain control of the highest point (the hill)
• Position: The “King” stands at the top while challengers attempt to dethrone them
• Defense: King must fend off multiple attackers from all directions
• Attack: Challengers must coordinate or find individual paths to the summit

Victory Conditions:

• For King: Maintain position for designated time period
• For Challengers: Successfully push the King off and claim the hill themselves
• Key Tension: King faces multiple simultaneous threats while challengers compete against each other AND the King

ProcureTech Market Parallels: The Analyst-Backed Giants

The “Kings” of ProcureTech Hill

Current Market Kings:

• SAP Ariba – Traditional enterprise incumbent
• Coupa – SaaS disruptor turned establishment
• Ivalua – The European champion that survived consolidation

The Hill = Market Leadership Position

What the “Hill” Represents:

• Gartner Magic Quadrant Leaders position
• Top-tier analyst coverage and endorsements
• Major consulting firm partnership recommendations
• Enterprise customer reference portfolio
• Industry conference keynote speaking slots

The Analyst/Consultant “Fortification System”

Defensive Fortifications

Analyst Firm Protection: Gartner’s Magic Quadrant positioning creates protective barriers, with “pay-to-play” allegations suggesting established vendors receive favorable treatment that helps maintain their “King” status.

Consulting Firm Moats:

• Implementation partnerships with McKinsey, Deloitte, KPMG create referral streams
• Risk-averse recommendations favor established “Kings” over innovative challengers
• Echo chamber effect reinforces existing market leaders

The Fortified Position Advantages

Resource Concentration: Traditional analyst frameworks “tend to validate trends after they are established, sometimes missing early-stage innovation or overemphasizing incumbent vendors.”

Self-Reinforcing Cycle:

1. Market leadership → Analyst attention → Consulting recommendations
2. Enterprise sales → Revenue growth → More analyst investment
3. Reference customers → Case studies → Further market validation

The Challenger’s Dilemma

Attack Vectors

Innovative Challengers Face:

1. The Coordination Problem

• Small innovative companies must compete against both established giants AND each other, similar to Hansen’s observation about “contract bundling” eliminating small enterprises from federal contracts.
• Challengers often attack each other instead of coordinating against the King

2. The Resource Asymmetry

• Kings have analyst relationships, consulting partnerships, and enterprise sales teams
• Challengers offer “early adoption of disruptive models” but lack the marketing muscle to break through

3. The Risk Perception Battle

• Enterprise buyers favor “safe” choices, creating what Hansen calls “vendor-neutral strategies” that actually favor established players

Challenger Success Patterns

Successful Hill Conquests:

• Coupa vs. Traditional ERP providers (2010-2020)
• Ivalua’s European expansion into global markets
• Zip’s rapid growth in intake orchestration

Common Success Factors:

1. Category Creation: Create new hill rather than attack existing one
2. Analyst Relationships: Eventually gain analyst recognition
3. Implementation Success: Focus on “20–30% higher implementation success rates”

The Hansen Fit Score as “Hill Warfare Intelligence”

Strategic Reconnaissance

Hansen’s Independent Analysis: Provides “practitioner-centric” rather than “provider-centric” assessment, identifying which challengers have genuine potential to storm the hill.

Early Warning System: Hansen’s methodology “identifies and rewards early adoption of disruptive models before they become mainstream,” essentially scouting which challengers are building capability to assault the hill.

The 75% Consolidation Prediction Through the King of the Hill Lens

Hansen’s “Hill Collapse” Theory

Market Dynamics: Hansen’s prediction that 75% of ProcureTech logos will disappear represents a fundamental shift where:

1. The Hill is Shrinking: Fewer viable “King” positions as market consolidates
2. Challenger Elimination: Most challengers fall off before reaching the summit
3. Multi-Hill Collapse: Secondary hills (niche markets) disappear, forcing all battles onto fewer primary hills

End Game Scenarios

Scenario 1: Hill Monopolization

• 2-3 mega-platforms control all major hills
• Challengers relegated to tiny specialty hills
• Innovation stifles as defensive positions become impregnable

Scenario 2: Platform Wars

• Multiple defended hills (SAP ecosystem vs. independent platforms)
• Ongoing challenger waves create dynamic competition
• Analyst/consulting fortifications determine winners

Strategic Implications

For Current Kings:

• Fortify analyst relationships to maintain defensive positions
• Expand hill territory through acquisitions before challengers gain foothold
• Create multiple defended positions across different procurement categories

For Challengers:

• Create new hills rather than attacking fortified positions
• Coordinate attacks or find undefended approaches
• Build independent validation (like Hansen Fit Score) to bypass traditional gatekeepers

For Procurement Practitioners:

The King of the Hill dynamic explains why the CPO’s observation about “just a handful of names being thrown around” persists – the analyst/consulting fortification system makes it extremely difficult for innovative challengers to gain visibility, even when they offer superior solutions.

Bottom Line: The King of the Hill metaphor reveals that ProcureTech market leadership isn’t just about product superiority – it’s about controlling the fortified high ground of analyst endorsements and consulting recommendations. Hansen’s 75% prediction essentially forecasts that most challengers will exhaust themselves trying to storm these fortified positions, while the Kings maintain their analyst-protected summits until the market consolidates around just a few defended hills.

The game is rigged in favor of those who can afford the fortifications, which is exactly why Hansen eliminated vendor sponsorships – to provide intelligence that isn’t influenced by whoever currently controls the hill.

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