Everywhere you look whether in the blogs, or social networking groups or for that matter even the more traditional media streams, the term supply chain risk pops up with increasing frequency.
Of course catastrophic events such as the recent earthquake in Japan have a way of igniting widespread interest if only for the time that the media keeps it in the forefront of our collective awareness or consciousness. Beyond these flashpoint events however, the subject of risk continues to be overlooked by most executives, the vast majority of whom have acknowledged some form of supply chain interruption in the previous 12 month period.
A kind of when everything is said and done (and there is a great deal being said about supply risk) . . . there is more said than done!
Here is the question . . . why?
Is supply chain risk and its effects not entirely understood by those who possess the decision-making capabilities to take action? Does risk, and its myriad of interconnecting or overlapping areas of organizational impact cause a no you take it paralysis that ultimately results in an after the fact “I thought you had it” deflective response? Or, is identifying and managing the risks associated with an organization’s supply chain too daunting a task with questionable rewards so as not to warrant the allocation of limited resources?
A 2009 report from the Economist Intelligence Unit titled “Managing supply-chain risk for reward” certainly goes a long ways towards establishing why it is important to address the variables and complexities of this important subject in the paper’s opening paragraph.
In a kind of comparison that is reminiscent of Dr. John Tantillo’s famous Winners and Losers brand, The Economist report relates the following story:
Nearly a decade ago, lighting struck a Philips microchip plant in New Mexico, causing a fire that contaminated millions of mobile phone chips. Among Philips’ biggest customers were Nokia and Ericsson, the mobile phone manufacturers, but each reacted differently to the disaster. Nokia’s supply-chain management strategy allowed it to switch suppliers quickly; it even re-engineered some of its phones to accept both American and Japanese chips, which meant its production line was relatively unaffected. Ericsson, however, accepted Philips’ word that production at the plant would be back on track in a week and it took no action. That decision cost Ericsson more than US $400 m in annual earnings and, perhaps more significantly, the company lost market share. By contrast, Nokia’s profits rose by 42% that year.
So here is the question . . . where did this risk originate (and don’t say when the lighting struck the Philips plant in New Mexico), and at which touch points within the organization should it have been addressed? Was it during the contract negotiations? How about at the point of hand-off between proof of concept product development and production environment output? Perhaps it was an issue that should have been considered in terms of supplier relationship management?
Similar to when a major airline’s jet crashes, there are countless interconnecting events that if only one had not occurred the crash would have been avoided. In essence, an unforeseen chain of events and unintended consequences that collectively came together in an unavoidable disaster for Ericsson.
Why did it happen?
Of even greater importance, what should you do to prevent a situational outcome such as the one experienced by Ericsson from happening within your organization’s supply chain?
Over the next week to ten days we will be posting this case reference to our various social media outlets asking industry experts to weigh in with their opinion as to what happened at Ericsson and why, and what they believe should take place to address the obvious shortfalls on a go forward basis.
You can of course offer your two-cents directly through this blog post’s comment stream as well, so don’t be shy dear reader as this is your turn to shine as well.
Note: remember to check out the follow-up post “24/7 Wall Street has predicted the demise of the Nokia brand in 2012 . . . if it’s true then one might ask if effective supply chain risk management actually matters.”
30
Jan Husdal
May 23, 2011
Thanks Jon for highlighting this now classic case of what I call Supply Chain Risk 101: How to and how not to handle a supply disruption. While the case of Nokia versus Ericsson has been used (and perhaps abused) time and again, the lessons appear to be quickly forgotten by many, as these mistakes repeat themselves over and over again, in other industries, in other businesses…
Shailendra
October 14, 2011
For both, Quality & Risk Mitigation, a simple method to identify the “need” for preventive action (usually clubbed under Business Continuity Plan) can be assessed through calculation of Failure Cost.
A simulated disaster and potential sequence of events and their associated cost can be calculated to a certain degree of accuracy. A factor indicating the probability and impact level of the risk can also be introduced to have a better projection.
Composite Risk Index = Impact of Risk Event x Probability of Occurrence
Once these projected costs are available, different action plans can be formulated (each having their own cost).
The above is what we commonly call as “Proactiveness”.
Seems like Nokia was proactive and Ericsson was not!
piblogger
October 14, 2011
Thank you for the calculable perspective Shailendra. Can you provide an example re case reference where this formula/approach has been successfully applied?
Shailendra
October 14, 2011
Off the top of my mind, I can think of three cases where such a methodology is in use.
1. The US Army calculates the composite risk of its action plans to avoid tactical & accidental losses. Composite Risk Management (CRM) has become their standard reference manual for managing risks involved in almost all tactical and operational plans.
2. ISO 27001 standards expect that any organization which produces information critical to its business and hence has to take up risk management. Composite Risk using a variation of the formula decides the allocation of resources and priority levels of risk mitigation activities.
3. Insurance companies calculate the composite risk in deciding the “eligibility” of applicants. I do not recall any specific examples here.
piblogger
October 14, 2011
Thank you for the added case references Shailendra, which helps to provide a point of reference or context for the readers . . . comments regarding the risk calculations provided are of course welcome.
Deselt
August 24, 2012
Hi! Do you use Twitter? I’d like to follow you if that would be ok. I’m definitely enjoying
your blog and look forward to new updates.
MarkFuturePurchasing
November 27, 2013
Managing the unforeseen is always difficult of course but you’ve sumarised it very nicely here, Jon. Would like to hear your thoughts around the recent procurement of half of Singapore’s rice suplies by HMS Illustrious on their way to help in the typhoon struck Philippines.
piblogger
November 27, 2013
Thank you for your comment Mark. I will look into the Singapore rice supply supply story and respond by way of a post. Please stay tuned.
MarkFuturePurchasing
November 27, 2013
Will do, Jon.
piblogger
November 27, 2013
By the way, humanitarian logistics management is very interesting in that it is an area in which there is little actual expertise.
What made you think of the Singapore rice example in relation to the disaster in the Philippines?
piblogger
April 1, 2014
Reblogged this on Procurement Insights EU Edition and commented:
Editor’s Note: The following post regarding a case study of the differences in risk management between Ericsson and Nokia continues to be the most read article on Procurement Insights. The reason is that the lessons it provides are enduring examples of what to do, and what not to do in terms of creating and implementing a risk management strategy.