As I am still running the RAM 4-Model Assessment Tool through its processes, an interesting trend is starting to emerge regarding the impact that the Coupa acquisition of Cirtuo potentially means to the stakeholders who matter most—you, the procurement practitioner-client.
Here is one of the four models’ initial results from a tier two analysis run, starting with two related graphs:
GRAPH 1
GRAPH 2
WHAT STORY DO THE ABOVE GRAPHS TELL US?
MODEL 1 (SUMMARY)
The graph demonstrates that, following the Coupa-Cirtuo integration under Thoma Bravo, the organization is projected to experience steady employee growth, a marked increase in expertise, gradual cultural and morale improvements, and a significant rise in client implementation success rates-reflecting both internal adaptation and external value delivery.
The following three models are early in their tier one cycle, but the initial high-level assessments are worth noting.
MODEL 2 (SUMMARY)
Projected Impact of the Coupa-Cirtuo Acquisition Under Thoma Bravo (2025–2040)
The acquisition of Cirtuo by Coupa, under the ownership of Thoma Bravo, is poised to influence employee dynamics over the next 15 years. Here’s a projection in 5-year increments:
2025–2030: Integration and Expansion
Headcount: Anticipated growth in combined workforce due to integration efforts and expansion of AI-driven procurement solutions.
Expertise Shifts: Emphasis on cross-training between Coupa’s spend management and Cirtuo’s category strategy platforms.
Culture: Efforts to blend Coupa’s established corporate culture with Cirtuo’s innovative approach to category management.
Morale: Generally positive, driven by new opportunities and the excitement of integration.
2030–2035: Consolidation and Optimization
Headcount: Potential stabilization or slight reduction as overlapping roles are streamlined.
Expertise Shifts: Focus on advanced AI capabilities and unified platform development.
Culture: Establishment of a unified corporate identity, blending best practices from both entities.
Morale: May experience fluctuations due to changes in roles and processes.
2035–2040: Innovation and Leadership
Headcount: Growth aligned with market expansion and leadership in AI-driven procurement solutions.
Expertise Shifts: Continued investment in cutting-edge technologies and methodologies.
Culture: Strong, cohesive culture centered on innovation, diversity, and excellence.
Morale: High, reflecting the company’s position as an industry leader and employer of choice.
These projections are based on current industry trends and the strategic direction of Thoma Bravo’s portfolio companies.
MODEL 3 (SUMMARY)
Summary Table
Year
Headcount
Expertise Shifts
Culture
Morale (Engagement)
2025
2,380
AI, category management integration
Profit-driven, integration friction
40% (low due to layoffs)
2030
3,050
Data science, ESG compliance focus
Performance-driven, enterprise norm
60% (stabilizing)
2035
3,900
AI ethics, cybersecurity, global focus
Mature, profit-oriented hybrid
70% (stable)
2040
4,600
Quantum computing, autonomous procurement
Mature enterprise, potential shift
65% (mature, uncertain)
MODEL 4 (SUMMARY)
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
Here was my response to Cirtuo’s Stephan Horvath’s comment on my post from yesterday:
While there are grounds for some excitement, we must keep in mind the high level of complexity involved with Mergers and Acquisitions overall, let alone in the ProcureTech industry.
As discovered by RAM, while there appears to be some debate regarding M&A success, as demonstrated by the two graphs below, the fact remains that there is a long road with many obstacles to be overcome between outcome anticipation and realization.
the
Critical Perspective
As seen in Bain & Company’s 2024 report, the establishment narrative claims a 70% M&A success rate by 2024. However, this may overstate success by focusing on financial outcomes rather than operational or cultural integration, which are critical in ProcureTech. ProcureTech M&A success is constrained by sector-specific issues (e.g., only 34% satisfaction with supplier systems, State of Flux, 2024), and the 50% estimate for 2025 reflects these challenges. The gap between the two lines highlights ProcureTech’s higher risk due to technology integration, a factor often downplayed in broader M&A success stories like Disney’s acquisitions. Data for ProcureTech M&A success is inferred, and actual rates could vary depending on specific deals and integration efforts.
Procurement Insights
A Coupa/Cirtuo Analysis: Headcount + Expertise Shift + Culture + Morale = Practitioner Client Success Or Failure
Posted on May 15, 2025
0
As I am still running the RAM 4-Model Assessment Tool through its processes, an interesting trend is starting to emerge regarding the impact that the Coupa acquisition of Cirtuo potentially means to the stakeholders who matter most—you, the procurement practitioner-client.
Here is one of the four models’ initial results from a tier two analysis run, starting with two related graphs:
GRAPH 1
GRAPH 2
WHAT STORY DO THE ABOVE GRAPHS TELL US?
MODEL 1 (SUMMARY)
The graph demonstrates that, following the Coupa-Cirtuo integration under Thoma Bravo, the organization is projected to experience steady employee growth, a marked increase in expertise, gradual cultural and morale improvements, and a significant rise in client implementation success rates-reflecting both internal adaptation and external value delivery.
The following three models are early in their tier one cycle, but the initial high-level assessments are worth noting.
MODEL 2 (SUMMARY)
Projected Impact of the Coupa-Cirtuo Acquisition Under Thoma Bravo (2025–2040)
The acquisition of Cirtuo by Coupa, under the ownership of Thoma Bravo, is poised to influence employee dynamics over the next 15 years. Here’s a projection in 5-year increments:
2025–2030: Integration and Expansion
2030–2035: Consolidation and Optimization
2035–2040: Innovation and Leadership
These projections are based on current industry trends and the strategic direction of Thoma Bravo’s portfolio companies.
MODEL 3 (SUMMARY)
Summary Table
MODEL 4 (SUMMARY)
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
Here was my response to Cirtuo’s Stephan Horvath’s comment on my post from yesterday:
While there are grounds for some excitement, we must keep in mind the high level of complexity involved with Mergers and Acquisitions overall, let alone in the ProcureTech industry.
As discovered by RAM, while there appears to be some debate regarding M&A success, as demonstrated by the two graphs below, the fact remains that there is a long road with many obstacles to be overcome between outcome anticipation and realization.
the
Critical Perspective
As seen in Bain & Company’s 2024 report, the establishment narrative claims a 70% M&A success rate by 2024. However, this may overstate success by focusing on financial outcomes rather than operational or cultural integration, which are critical in ProcureTech. ProcureTech M&A success is constrained by sector-specific issues (e.g., only 34% satisfaction with supplier systems, State of Flux, 2024), and the 50% estimate for 2025 reflects these challenges. The gap between the two lines highlights ProcureTech’s higher risk due to technology integration, a factor often downplayed in broader M&A success stories like Disney’s acquisitions. Data for ProcureTech M&A success is inferred, and actual rates could vary depending on specific deals and integration efforts.
30
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