In February 2025, James Meads dedicated a full episode of The Procurement Software Podcast to my prediction that 75% of ProcureTech solution provider logos would disappear. He was generous — called me “very knowledgeable about the procurement tech space, being one of the original bloggers and analysts.” Then he said he fundamentally disagreed.
His words: “Some is definitely not 75% of the market.” He put his own number on the line: maximum 20–25% net consolidation. Even if 50% of companies disappeared, he argued, at least half would be replaced by new entrants. He acknowledged there were “nuggets of truth” in the underlying argument, but the headline number? Fundamentally wrong.
Fair challenge. I respected James for making a counter-prediction publicly, and I said at the time that it was worth revisiting with data.
So we revisited it. And we stopped arguing about what “gone” means.
The 4-State Outcome Classification
The problem with the original debate was definitional. “Disappeared” is a word people can argue about forever. So we replaced it with four observable states — the only four states a vendor logo can actually be in:
Defunct. Shutdown. Insolvent. No continuity. 22%.
Absorbed. Acquired. Brand discontinued. Roadmap subordinated to acquirer. 31%.
Merged / Renamed. No longer sold independently. Product identity uncertain. 19%.
Still Operating Independently. Same product. Same roadmap. Same risk profile. 28%.
That is not a prediction anymore. It is a measurement.
EDITOR’S NOTE: There are many different maps, and while there is a certain percentage of overlaps — the same logos across multiple maps — there is likely to be a notable difference, which could either increase or decrease the 72%. The point of this post is not the 72% but to demonstrate the volatility of the ProcureTech provider marketplace, which ultimately has a direct impact on practitioner outcomes.
The Number
72% of ProcureTech vendor logos from the baseline solution map no longer exist as independent entities. Predicted: 75%. Measured: 72%.
James predicted 20–25% net consolidation. The measured effective disappearance rate is 72%. The gap between those two numbers is the difference between market observation and longitudinal pattern documentation.
And here’s what makes this worth more than a scorecard: the 2010 validation was even worse. When we went back and tracked the “10 for 2010” solution providers I profiled fifteen years ago, only one — Ivalua — is still thriving independently. That is a 90% effective disappearance rate across a full technology cycle. The 75% prediction wasn’t aggressive. It was the conservative version of a pattern I have been documenting since the ERP era.
Why This Matters Now
This is not about winning a prediction. It is about what the data means for every CPO making a technology selection decision today.
If 72% of the logos on your solution map will not exist as independent entities within a few years, then the most important question is not “which vendor should I select?” It is “can my organization absorb and sustain value from this investment if the vendor’s identity changes?”
That is a readiness question. That is Phase 0. And it is the question that solution maps, Magic Quadrants, and analyst rankings do not ask — because asking it would mean telling some clients not to proceed.
The prediction was never really about the number. It was about whether the industry would recognize that vendor survivability is a readiness variable, not a selection variable.
72% says it is time to recognize it.
The ProcureTech Vendor Survival Outcomes graphic uses the Hansen Models™ 4-State Outcome Classification. Full methodology available through the Hansen Models™ All-Access subscription. Details at hansenmodels.com.
Procurement Insights
James, About That 75% Number
Posted on February 22, 2026
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By Jon W. Hansen | Procurement Insights
In February 2025, James Meads dedicated a full episode of The Procurement Software Podcast to my prediction that 75% of ProcureTech solution provider logos would disappear. He was generous — called me “very knowledgeable about the procurement tech space, being one of the original bloggers and analysts.” Then he said he fundamentally disagreed.
His words: “Some is definitely not 75% of the market.” He put his own number on the line: maximum 20–25% net consolidation. Even if 50% of companies disappeared, he argued, at least half would be replaced by new entrants. He acknowledged there were “nuggets of truth” in the underlying argument, but the headline number? Fundamentally wrong.
Fair challenge. I respected James for making a counter-prediction publicly, and I said at the time that it was worth revisiting with data.
So we revisited it. And we stopped arguing about what “gone” means.
The 4-State Outcome Classification
The problem with the original debate was definitional. “Disappeared” is a word people can argue about forever. So we replaced it with four observable states — the only four states a vendor logo can actually be in:
Defunct. Shutdown. Insolvent. No continuity. 22%.
Absorbed. Acquired. Brand discontinued. Roadmap subordinated to acquirer. 31%.
Merged / Renamed. No longer sold independently. Product identity uncertain. 19%.
Still Operating Independently. Same product. Same roadmap. Same risk profile. 28%.
That is not a prediction anymore. It is a measurement.
EDITOR’S NOTE: There are many different maps, and while there is a certain percentage of overlaps — the same logos across multiple maps — there is likely to be a notable difference, which could either increase or decrease the 72%. The point of this post is not the 72% but to demonstrate the volatility of the ProcureTech provider marketplace, which ultimately has a direct impact on practitioner outcomes.
The Number
72% of ProcureTech vendor logos from the baseline solution map no longer exist as independent entities. Predicted: 75%. Measured: 72%.
James predicted 20–25% net consolidation. The measured effective disappearance rate is 72%. The gap between those two numbers is the difference between market observation and longitudinal pattern documentation.
And here’s what makes this worth more than a scorecard: the 2010 validation was even worse. When we went back and tracked the “10 for 2010” solution providers I profiled fifteen years ago, only one — Ivalua — is still thriving independently. That is a 90% effective disappearance rate across a full technology cycle. The 75% prediction wasn’t aggressive. It was the conservative version of a pattern I have been documenting since the ERP era.
Why This Matters Now
This is not about winning a prediction. It is about what the data means for every CPO making a technology selection decision today.
If 72% of the logos on your solution map will not exist as independent entities within a few years, then the most important question is not “which vendor should I select?” It is “can my organization absorb and sustain value from this investment if the vendor’s identity changes?”
That is a readiness question. That is Phase 0. And it is the question that solution maps, Magic Quadrants, and analyst rankings do not ask — because asking it would mean telling some clients not to proceed.
The prediction was never really about the number. It was about whether the industry would recognize that vendor survivability is a readiness variable, not a selection variable.
72% says it is time to recognize it.
The ProcureTech Vendor Survival Outcomes graphic uses the Hansen Models™ 4-State Outcome Classification. Full methodology available through the Hansen Models™ All-Access subscription. Details at hansenmodels.com.
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