Truth Is Believing. Accuracy Is Knowing. Outcome Is Proof.™
The following is a chart that was posted on LinkedIn this week.
Chart: Andreas Horn, posted on LinkedIn, August 29, 2026. Reproduced here for the purpose of commentary.
A line chart with no axis labels or units. A blue curve rises exponentially from left to right. A dot near the lower left of the curve is labelled “You are here.”
Second line: Standish Group CHAOS reports — 16% of projects successful in 1994, 29% in 2015, and in 2020, 31% successful, 50% challenged, 19% failed. The series ends in 2020 and measures IT projects generally rather than AI specifically. Directional finding corroborated by McKinsey (2018) and BCG (2020); Standish methodology contested — see Eveleens & Verhoef (2010). The capability curve carries no source because none was given; its shape is reproduced as drawn and placed on a time axis so the two can be compared.
The same rising blue capability curve, now on a time axis from 1994 to 2026, with a second red line above it showing the percentage of IT projects that were not successful — 84% in 1994, falling to about 63% by 2012, then flattening near 69%. The blue curve is marked “You are here”; the red line is marked “And here.”
The chart at the top of this page got my attention. Rather than write a detailed response, I added a second line to the chart below it.
I suspect this is the part of the picture we all need to talk about more.
-30-
This analysis draws on the Procurement Insights archive — an independent record carrying zero vendor sponsorships, published openly since 2007 and consolidating documented client work, lectures, and articles reaching back to 1998. Every claim is held to the Provenance Ledger™: a verify-before-publish discipline that traces each assertion to a primary source and never quietly edits the record once posted. That record is the evidence base for two working lenses — Invariant Physics™, the constant that however far the technology advances the operating logic must be in place first, and Implementation Physics™, its per-engagement application. Phase 0™ is the discipline that validates operating conditions before the amplifier is switched on.
Getting it right rather than being right.
Jon W. Hansen, FCIPS — Procurement Insights | Hansen Models™
What You See, and Why We Need to Talk
Posted on August 30, 2026
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Truth Is Believing. Accuracy Is Knowing. Outcome Is Proof.™
The following is a chart that was posted on LinkedIn this week.
Chart: Andreas Horn, posted on LinkedIn, August 29, 2026. Reproduced here for the purpose of commentary.
A line chart with no axis labels or units. A blue curve rises exponentially from left to right. A dot near the lower left of the curve is labelled “You are here.”
Second line: Standish Group CHAOS reports — 16% of projects successful in 1994, 29% in 2015, and in 2020, 31% successful, 50% challenged, 19% failed. The series ends in 2020 and measures IT projects generally rather than AI specifically. Directional finding corroborated by McKinsey (2018) and BCG (2020); Standish methodology contested — see Eveleens & Verhoef (2010). The capability curve carries no source because none was given; its shape is reproduced as drawn and placed on a time axis so the two can be compared.
The same rising blue capability curve, now on a time axis from 1994 to 2026, with a second red line above it showing the percentage of IT projects that were not successful — 84% in 1994, falling to about 63% by 2012, then flattening near 69%. The blue curve is marked “You are here”; the red line is marked “And here.”
The chart at the top of this page got my attention. Rather than write a detailed response, I added a second line to the chart below it.
I suspect this is the part of the picture we all need to talk about more.
-30-
This analysis draws on the Procurement Insights archive — an independent record carrying zero vendor sponsorships, published openly since 2007 and consolidating documented client work, lectures, and articles reaching back to 1998. Every claim is held to the Provenance Ledger™: a verify-before-publish discipline that traces each assertion to a primary source and never quietly edits the record once posted. That record is the evidence base for two working lenses — Invariant Physics™, the constant that however far the technology advances the operating logic must be in place first, and Implementation Physics™, its per-engagement application. Phase 0™ is the discipline that validates operating conditions before the amplifier is switched on.
Getting it right rather than being right.
Jon W. Hansen, FCIPS — Procurement Insights | Hansen Models™
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