What Is The True Cost Of Our GenAI Hubris?

Posted on August 24, 2024

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“I’m not buying into the impact . . . there will be a shakeout but I don’t expect it will have anywhere near the impact of the dotcom bust.” – Bill DeMartino, LinkedIn comment (August 23, 2024)

Bill DeMartino, you are right. It isn’t going to be a spectacular fireworks display.

I would describe the impact more as high blood pressure—there is a reason why they call it the “silent killer.” The immediate fallout will be the disappearing logos from the solution provider maps. You can call that a little fireworks.

However, the damage to supply chains now will be felt for the next couple of years because we will have to make up for the lost efficiencies and people talent that hasn’t been developed as expected. And I am not talking about AI or GenAI talent development. I am talking about agent-based problem-solving talent development.

Read the following post and note the images. What damage have we caused our supply chains by going from Dr. Elouise Epstein’s 2019 to her 2023 map? An even bigger question is how much the 2025 contraction back to a 2019 map will further weaken our supply chains as we enter a tumultuous world period.

The above expansion, then contraction, is like high blood pressure in that right now we don’t recognize the impact, and we don’t know what the consequences will ultimately be for supply chains, of which 60% of SMEs are critical parts.

That is why, Bill, it will ultimately be more devastating than the dot.com bust in 2001.

What will our GenAI hubris cost us in the short, mid, and long-term?

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Posted in: Commentary