Procurement industry conferences, trade wars and Black Swan events – 2025 to 2030

EDITOR’S NOTE: This post is inspired by the following comment in a related discussion stream on LinkedIn:

Conference Attendance: Past 20 Years

Qualitative Trends Over 20 Years

1. 2005–2010: Steady Early Growth
   • Conferences like ISM World (founded earlier) and SIG’s Procurement Technology Summit began formalizing procurement as a strategic function. Attendance likely grew modestly (e.g., hundreds to low thousands) as globalization increased supply chain complexity. Economic recovery post-2008 spurred interest, though data is anecdotal.
2. 2011–2015: Rising Professionalization
   • Events like Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo and World Procurement Congress (nearing its 21st year by 2025) gained traction. Attendance likely rose to 1,000–2,000 per major event, driven by technology (e.g., ERP systems) and supply chain visibility needs. No hard numbers exist, but industry focus on cost optimization post-recession supports this.
3. 2016–2019: Pre-Pandemic Peak
   • Digital transformation (e.g., IoT, early AI) and sustainability (ESG) boosted interest. Procurement & Supply Chain LIVE (launched later) and ProcureCon reported growing audiences (e.g., 2,000+ by 2022). Total attendance across major events likely hit a peak, with estimates of 5,000–10,000 annually across top 10 conferences, reflecting market growth.
4. 2020: Pandemic Disruption
   • In-person attendance plummeted due to COVID-19 lockdowns. Events shifted virtual (e.g., Procurement & Supply Chain LIVE hybrid launch). Total physical attendance likely dropped 70–90% (e.g., from thousands to hundreds), though virtual platforms offset some loss (e.g., 2,200 virtual attendees at P&S LIVE 2022).
5. 2021–2023: Hybrid Recovery
   • Hybrid formats emerged, blending in-person (e.g., 1,000+ at London events) and virtual (e.g., thousands online). SIG’s Summit and ISM World regained momentum, with attendance recovering to pre-pandemic levels or higher due to broader reach. Industry focus on resilience post-disruptions drove engagement.
6. 2024–2025: AI-Driven Surge
   • Current data (e.g., ISM World 2025’s 2,000+ expected, World Procurement Congress’s 1,100+ CPOs historically) suggests a surge, fueled by AI, ESG, and geopolitical shifts. Total attendance across major events could exceed 15,000–20,000 annually, with hybrid models amplifying participation.

Illustrative Attendance Graph (Conceptual)

Since exact numbers aren’t available, here’s a qualitative representation of total annual attendance across major procurement and supply chain conferences (in thousands):

Year | Attendance (Thousands)
2005 |   2
2006 |   2.5
2007 |   3
2008 |   3.2  (Recession slows growth)
2009 |   3.5
2010 |   4
2011 |   4.5
2012 |   5
2013 |   5.5
2014 |   6
2015 |   7
2016 |   8
2017 |   9
2018 |  10
2019 |  11    (Pre-pandemic peak)
2020 |   3    (Pandemic dip, virtual shift)
2021 |   6    (Hybrid recovery begins)
2022 |   9    (2,200+ at P&S LIVE noted)
2023 |  12
2024 |  15
2025 |  18    (Projected, AI/ESG surge)

Graph Description (Text-Based):

• 2005–2010: Gradual rise from 2,000 to 4,000, slow post-2008.
• 2011–2019: Steady climb to 11,000, peaking pre-COVID.
• 2020: Sharp drop to 3,000, reflecting in-person collapse.
• 2021–2025: Rebound to 18,000, with hybrid and AI boosting numbers.

Key Insights

• Growth Drivers: Attendance grew with procurement’s strategic importance (e.g., McKinsey’s 2023 note on CPOs as executive partners), tech adoption (AI, blockchain), and supply chain crises (e.g., 2020–2022 disruptions).
• Pandemic Impact: 2020 saw a steep decline, but virtual/hybrid formats post-2021 expanded reach, likely surpassing pre-2020 highs by 2025.
• 2025 Outlook: With AI dominating (e.g., SIG’s AI focus, GEP Outlook 2025), attendance could hit new records, though physical caps (venue sizes) temper in-person growth.

Limitations and Caveats

• This is a conceptual estimate, not a precise count. Actual totals could vary widely (e.g., 10,000–30,000 annually across dozens of events).
• Smaller regional events (e.g., ProcureCon Asia) and untracked niche summits aren’t included, underestimating the true scale.

Conference Attendance Forecast (2025 – 2030)

Projected Attendance Trends (2025–2030)

• Baseline (2025): Building on the prior estimate, total attendance across major conferences might reach 18,000–20,000 (in-person + virtual), driven by AI and hybrid adoption.
• 2026–2030 Forecast:
  • Tariffs: Add 5–10% growth through 2027 as strategies evolve, then stabilize as firms adapt (e.g., nearshoring matures).
  • Political Unrest: Boost virtual attendance 20–30% annually, with in-person flatlining at 10,000–12,000 due to travel risks.
  • Ukraine War: Contribute 5–10% growth through 2028 if unresolved, tapering as supply chains reroute.
  • Climate Events: Drive 15–20% annual increases, peaking at 30,000–40,000 total by 2030 as ESG dominates agendas.

Conceptual Estimate (Total Attendance, Thousands):

• 2025: 18–20
• 2026: 22–25
• 2027: 25–29
• 2028: 28–33
• 2029: 32–38
• 2030: 35–40

Trend Narrative:

• Early Surge (2025–2027): Tariffs and unrest fuel a 20–30% jump in hybrid attendance as professionals tackle immediate disruptions.
• Mid-Term Shift (2028–2029): Climate and ongoing Ukraine impacts sustain growth, with virtual formats outpacing in-person (e.g., 60% virtual by 2029).
• Long-Term Peak (2030): ESG and AI integration push totals toward 40,000, though physical attendance caps at 15,000 due to cost and climate constraints.

Key Influences and Scenarios

• Positive Catalysts: AI tools (e.g., Zycus’s Merlin) and ESG mandates (e.g., IRA’s $370B climate push, CSIS 2024) draw attendees seeking innovation, per SIG’s AI advocacy. Hybrid models amplify reach, doubling virtual participation by 2030.
• Negative Pressures: Economic stagflation (EY’s 1.2% GDP drop scenario) and climate disruptions (e.g., 2025 floods) could cut in-person attendance by 10–20% in peak years, offset by virtual gains.
• Worst-Case Scenario: Escalating Ukraine conflict plus a 2030 mega-climate event (e.g., hurricane season) could stall growth at 25,000, with in-person dropping to 8,000.
• Best-Case Scenario: Tariff stabilization and climate tech breakthroughs could push totals to 45,000 by 2030, with 20,000 in-person.

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SPECIAL NOTE: Using the 1998 to 2025 RAM self-learning algorithm architecture framework reflecting my “strand commonality” theory, I will incorporate the past 20 year trends into the above numbers for the following external factors:

• Tariff Situation
• Political Unrest
• War in Ukraine
• Potential Climate Events
• Pandemic Impact (which I don’t believe should be considered a black swan event – apologies to Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I will provide the results in a future post.

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