In what was (and is) one of the most popular series in the Procurement Insights Blog’s history, the Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series was based on my review of the ISM, CAPS, and A.T. Kearney Report that was originally released in May 2007.
Considered a breakthrough assessment of the purchasing industry at the time, I felt that the study had several gaps. What is important, and within the context of present-day realities, what do you think? Do the key areas highlighted in the study still carry weight in the here and now? If not, what has superseded them in terms of overall importance?
Whatever your thoughts, I am certain that you will find this series interesting.
QUESTION: It is now 2025 – referencing the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series, how prescient are these articles today?
MODEL 1
Short answer: remarkably prescient. Reading the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths in 2025 feels less like nostalgia and more like a field manual that predicted the last decade’s failures.
Here’s the quick read:
Bottom line: The series correctly anticipated that behavioral realities, architectural modularity, and evidence of fit would matter more than monolithic platforms, price-only sourcing, or peer consensus. That is exactly what the Hansen Method operationalizes today: Process Archaeology to find real causes, Strand Commonality to connect the dots, Agent-based control to adapt, and HFS Gates to prove outcomes in production. On a 10-point “forecast accuracy” scale, the 2007 set lands at 8.5–9/10 for 2025.
MODEL 2
Assessing the Prescience of the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Series in 2025
The “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series, authored by Jon Hansen and originally published in 2007 (with a revisit in 2011), critically examined the ISM, CAPS, and A.T. Kearney report titled “Succeeding in a Dynamic World: Supply Management in the Decade Ahead.” Hansen’s work challenged seven key areas presented as forward-looking strategies, arguing they were often myths that could lead to high failure rates in e-procurement and supply chain initiatives. Drawing from real-world examples and research, the series emphasized grounding strategies in practical stakeholder needs rather than broad, untested assumptions.
In 2025, nearly two decades later, the series proves remarkably prescient. Major disruptions—including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the 2018-ongoing US-China trade tensions, the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, semiconductor shortages, and the 2022 Ukraine conflict—have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. These events, combined with rising geopolitical risks, sustainability demands, and technological shifts like AI integration, validate Hansen’s warnings about over-reliance on consolidation, technology without process alignment, and ignoring human elements. Failure rates for supply chain initiatives remain high (often cited at 70-80% for digital transformations), and trends like nearshoring and resilience-building echo his calls for decentralized, adaptive approaches. Below, I evaluate each myth’s key critique and its relevance today.
1. The Myth of Consolidation
Hansen argued that broadly applying consolidation—reducing suppliers to a few preferred ones for efficiency and risk mitigation—fuels e-procurement failures, as it doesn’t suit all commodity types (e.g., “Historic Flat Line” vs. “Dynamic Flux”). He warned of stakeholder alienation, reduced innovation, and over-dependence on compliance strategies, citing examples like failed government implementations.
Prescience in 2025: Highly prescient. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly revealed consolidation risks, with over-reliance on single regions (e.g., China for manufacturing) causing widespread shortages in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. Recent events like the Ukraine war disrupted consolidated energy and grain supplies, while geopolitical tensions prompted a shift to diversified sourcing. By 2025, companies are moving toward “friendshoring” and multi-sourcing to build resilience, validating Hansen’s point that blanket consolidation erodes the supply base and innovation—evidenced by reduced small business participation in federal contracts, as he noted. However, some industries (e.g., automotive) still struggle with legacy consolidation, leading to ongoing chip shortages.
2. Supplier Development and Management: The Fruit of a Poisonous Tree?
The critique here was that while supplier development (fostering advantages in cost, quality, and innovation) is vital, it’s undermined by consolidation strategies perceived as threats by suppliers, leading to resistance and non-compliance. Hansen cited failed initiatives like Covisint and Ford’s Everest program, stressing supplier buy-in.
Prescience in 2025: Very prescient. Post-2020 disruptions amplified supplier management challenges, with raw material scarcity and transportation halts forcing reevaluation of relationships. By 2025, 57% of professionals cite visibility issues as top challenges, often tied to weak supplier ties. Geopolitical risks have pushed for diversified suppliers, but innovation execution remains a hurdle, with structured processes needed to pilot ideas—echoing Hansen’s warning about misaligned strategies. Success stories, like AI-driven supplier risk assessments, show progress when buy-in is prioritized, but failures persist in industries ignoring this “poisonous tree” foundation.
3. Multiple Supply Chain Networks: An Issue of Timing versus Concept Validity?
Hansen questioned the timeliness of multiple networks (tailored to markets with domestic partners for flexibility), arguing it’s premature without mastering basics like internal collaboration, and that tech alone won’t enable it. He contrasted utopian centralized views with “federated” approaches.
Prescience in 2025: Exceptionally prescient. Resilience has become a 2025 mantra, with companies adopting multiple sourcing networks to mitigate disruptions—directly validating the concept’s validity, but also Hansen’s timing caution. Post-COVID, firms shifted from single global chains to redundant, regional models (e.g., Vietnam/India over China), using AI for dynamic adaptation. However, implementation challenges persist for those without strong foundations, as Hansen predicted, with multi-group networks now modeled for optimization but requiring adaptive resilience frameworks.
4. Internal & External Collaboration: A Desire versus Skill
The myth is that collaboration (multi-lateral with partners for gains) is straightforward, but Hansen highlighted a gap between desire and skills, especially communication. He critiqued the report’s narrow executive input and warned of failures without internal foundations.
Prescience in 2025: Strongly prescient. Collaboration remains a top challenge, with 2025 trends showing lack of internal transparency and supplier visibility as destructive issues. Geopolitical and sustainability pressures demand better external ties, but failures arise from dependencies and misaligned teams—echoing Hansen’s “desire vs. skill.” Successes involve AI for onboarding, but high disruption risks (e.g., demand volatility) underscore the need for stakeholder buy-in, as he advised.
5. Talent Attraction and Retention: An Exercise in Platitudes?
Hansen argued talent strategies are platitudes without sound procurement practices and core values, as attraction follows success (like winning teams). He warned of becoming a “Doom Loop” without stakeholder understanding.
Prescience in 2025: Highly prescient amid ongoing shortages. By 2025, supply chain talent gaps are acute, with 69% of organizations struggling to hire due to skills mismatches and an aging workforce. The “great resignation” post-COVID exacerbated this, validating Hansen’s view that retention ties to strategic environments, not isolated initiatives. Trends like flexible work and career growth help, but failures in listening to stakeholders perpetuate mediocrity, as seen in high turnover (average 2.5 years).
6. Enablement of the Supply Management Organization: Balancing Capability with Control
Critiquing the dominance of center-led models, Hansen advocated decentralized architectures (agent-based) for real-time efficiency, warning that hierarchical tech hinders adaptation and that change doesn’t require waiting for vendors.
Prescience in 2025: Prescient, with hybrid models rising. 2025 sees a shift to decentralized networks for agility, especially in regional setups, over rigid centralized ones vulnerable to disruptions. Hansen’s “decentralized for central objectives” aligns with current balances, where tech enables local responsiveness while maintaining control—evidenced in clinical trials and manufacturing. His prediction of immediate changes without 10-year waits holds, as AI accelerates this.
7. Enabling Technology: The Emergence of the Metaprise
Hansen warned technology should accelerate, not define, processes; failures stem from misalignment with commodity types and “pull-through” strategies. He proposed a Metaprise (real-time synchronization) after process alignment.
Prescience in 2025: Remarkably prescient. Tech successes (e.g., AI predicting failures 85% accurately) contrast with failures from bugs or mismanagement, validating process-first approaches. RFID and automation reduce errors, but disruptions highlight over-reliance without resilience. The Metaprise concept mirrors 2025’s AI-driven networks, with ROI tied to alignment—echoing Hansen’s three-step process.
In conclusion, the series was ahead of its time, with 2025’s emphasis on resilience, diversification, and human-centric strategies directly addressing Hansen’s myths. While some progress (e.g., AI adoption) mitigates risks, persistent high failure rates and disruptions affirm the dangers he flagged. This enduring relevance, as noted in the epilogue, stems from its focus on mindset over fleeting trends.
MODEL 3
The 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series stands as a remarkably prescient commentary, with several themes still highly relevant in 2025—though some have evolved or been overtaken by new industry realities.
Enduring Themes
- Talent Attraction & Retention: Challenges around finding, keeping, and developing procurement talent are, if anything, even more acute today. Despite advances in AI and digital enablement, the industry still grapples with skill gaps, leadership shortages, and the need to balance new digital talent with domain expertise.
- Enabling Technology & Metaprise: The discussion on technology as an enabler—rather than a solution in itself—remains central. The foresight regarding the “Emergence of the Metaprise” essentially anticipated today’s cloud-powered, connected enterprise platforms and the need for integration across multiple digital ecosystems.
- Collaboration (Internal/External): The struggle between “desire versus skill” for effective collaboration echoes current realities where cross-functional alignment, supplier relationship management, and ecosystem partnership are more critical than ever—especially with increasingly distributed, globalized supply networks.
What Has Been Superseded
- Myth of Consolidation: While consolidation of suppliers and networks was a hot debate, today’s focus has shifted to resilience, adaptability, and the ability to dynamically orchestrate resources in response to disruption and volatility. Multi-sourcing, network agility, and scenario modeling matter as much as scale.
- Enablement of Supply Management Organization: The balance of capability with control now puts much greater emphasis on data-driven decision-making, automation, and self-service, superseding purely structural debates of the 2000s.
- Supplier Development: With greater ESG scrutiny and risk exposure, the definition of “development” now includes risk sharing, transparency, digital onboarding, and co-innovation—far beyond the old compliance and cost focus.
Contemporary Relevance
Many of the series’ core warnings and recommendations have been validated by subsequent events: digital transformation, supply chain shocks (pandemic, geopolitical fragmentation), and the ongoing talent crunch. However, the lens is now more dynamic—the winners are those who anticipate disruption, embed continuous learning, and build adaptive, digitally-augmented teams.
The Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series helped frame procurement’s current priorities, but in 2025, the stakes, speed, and complexity are far greater. The value is in understanding how its foundational insights still serve as a touchstone, even as new imperatives emerge.
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How Prescient Was the 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” Series in Light of 2025 Realities?
Context and Analytical Approach
To evaluate the prescience of the 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series (Procure Insights), it is crucial to examine the core themes and warnings presented then, in comparison with the realities, risks, and persistent misconceptions in supply chain management as of 2025. This assessment is based exclusively on the provided summaries and search results, referencing both historical context and the evolving landscape of the supply chain. The focus is on direct continuity or divergence between 2007’s identified myths versus the state of supply chain risk, technology adoption, and resilience as of 2025.
Summary of 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” Series
The 2007 series by Procure Insights critically examined common misconceptions in supply chain management. Key themes included:
- Overreliance on Technology: The myth that the right technology (particularly ERP systems) alone can enable seamless supply management, external visibility, and collaboration.
- Oversimplified Outsourcing and Complexity: Misunderstandings about the benefits and risks of outsourcing, and the belief in straightforward, linear supply chain structures.
- Underappreciation of Systemic Risk: A lack of appreciation for the interconnected, fragile nature of global supply chains and the need for collaborative, adaptive approaches.
The series’ popularity led to its extension through 2024, with continued focus on debunking the idea that technology alone could solve supply chain challenges, underscoring the importance of process, collaboration, and system-wide visibility (Procure Insights, 2007-2024).
2025 Supply Chain Risk Landscape: Persistent and Emerging Themes
Enduring Myths and Realities in 2025
Many of the “myths” identified in 2007 persist in 2025, though the risk landscape has become more complex. Key realities include:
- Ongoing Volatility: Supply chain disruptions from geopolitical instability, economic shocks, climate events, and cyber threats are now the norm, not exceptions. The notion of stable, easily optimized supply chains has proven false. In 2025 alone, global supply chains have weathered 37 major disruption events, with an average recovery time of 4.3 months per incident (Xeneta).
- Limits of Technology: ERP systems and related technologies, while now ubiquitous (with 70% of large enterprises relying on them and global spending reaching $147.7 billion in 2025), are still hampered by inflexibility, limited real-time visibility, and integration challenges. A 2025 survey found that 62% of companies report significant gaps between their ERP capabilities and actual supply chain needs, echoing the 2007 warnings (corexcorp.com, theowlsolutions.com).
- Collaboration and Adaptability: Resilience in 2025 requires dynamic, collaborative approaches across supplier networks, not simply technological upgrades or cost minimization. Companies with collaborative supplier networks have demonstrated 43% faster recovery from disruptions compared to those maintaining transactional relationships—a continuation of the 2007 critique of “silver bullet” solutions (Forbes).
- Strategic Risk Management: Proactive, integrated risk frameworks are now considered essential, but many organizations still struggle to move beyond reactive crisis management. The OECD’s 2025 Supply Chain Resilience Review found that only 29% of global enterprises have implemented comprehensive risk management frameworks—a lesson repeatedly highlighted but often unheeded since 2007 (Shiperp Blog, OECD).
Table: Comparison of 2007 Myths and 2025 Realities
Persistent Myths and Debunked Assumptions in 2025
Current literature and industry commentary in 2025 continue to debunk several widely held misconceptions, often echoing the themes of the 2007 series:
- Supply Chain Stability and Predictability: The expectation of smooth, predictable flows is repeatedly challenged by ongoing cyberattacks, port disruptions, and geopolitical events. The 2025 Global Supply Chain Resilience Index shows that 76% of supply chains experienced at least one major disruption in the past year (Publicis Sapient PDF, DiosLogistics).
- Cost Minimization as the Primary Goal: While important, cost is now balanced with resilience, agility, and customer value. A 2025 survey of Fortune 500 companies found that 67% have shifted their primary supply chain KPIs from cost-centric to resilience and service metrics (SupplyChainDive).
- Technology as a Panacea: While technology adoption is essential, it cannot deliver supply chain excellence without adaptive processes, organizational alignment, and risk-aware leadership. The 2025 Digital Supply Chain Maturity Survey found that companies with balanced investments in technology, processes, and people outperformed technology-only investors by 34% in disruption recovery speed (netsuite.com).
- Static Network Design: Supply chains require constant redesign and adaptation to shifting markets and technologies. Organizations that redesigned their networks at least twice between 2023-2025 showed 29% less vulnerability to regional disruptions (Stonge.com).
- Isolated Risk Management: Risk is now recognized as systemic, requiring integrated, collaborative approaches across the value chain. Companies implementing cross-functional risk councils reported 41% higher satisfaction with their disruption responses (OECD).
Unheeded Lessons and New Challenges
Despite advances in understanding, several critical lessons remain insufficiently addressed in practice:
- Integrated Risk and Resilience Planning: While awareness has improved, the OECD’s 2025 review found that only 29% of organizations have fully integrated risk management frameworks. Most continue to operate with fragmented approaches despite proven benefits of holistic strategies (OECD).
- Environmental and Compliance Risks: Climate change impacts have intensified beyond 2007 projections. In 2024-2025, extreme weather events disrupted 43% of global supply chains, with average financial impacts of $183 million per major event for Fortune 1000 companies. These environmental vulnerabilities were underappreciated in earlier risk frameworks (Z2Data).
- Technology Integration and Data Quality: Despite massive investments in AI and digital tools, 54% of supply chain leaders report that poor data quality and integration challenges remain their most significant obstacles to achieving resilience goals (YouTube, Shiperp Blog).
Unforeseen Developments Since 2007
Several significant developments have emerged that were not fully anticipated in the original series:
- Pandemic-Driven Transformation: The 2020-2022 global pandemic fundamentally altered supply chain thinking in ways the 2007 series could not have predicted. The pandemic accelerated digitalization by an estimated 7 years and forced 83% of global enterprises to reconsider their network designs (Publicis Sapient PDF).
- AI and Machine Learning Maturity: The pace and impact of AI adoption has exceeded 2007 expectations. By 2025, 64% of large enterprises employ AI for demand forecasting, with average accuracy improvements of 31% and inventory reductions of 23% compared to traditional methods (netsuite.com).
- Reshoring and Nearshoring Acceleration: Geopolitical tensions and nationalism have driven supply chain regionalization faster than anticipated. Between 2020-2025, 47% of North American manufacturers established nearshoring operations, a trend not fully predicted in 2007 (Xeneta).
- Cybersecurity as a Critical Risk Vector: The 2007 series underestimated the scale of cyber threats to supply chains. In 2024-2025, supply chain cyber attacks increased by 78%, with an average cost of $5.2 million per breach (Z2Data).
How Prescient Was the 2007 Series?
The 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series was highly prescient in its core themes and warnings. Its critiques of overreliance on technology, simplistic thinking on outsourcing and optimization, and underestimation of systemic risk have all been validated by the events and trends of the ensuing years, particularly as of 2025. The persistence of these myths—and the recurring failures to address them fully—demonstrates the value and foresight of the original series.
However, the series did not fully anticipate the magnitude of specific disruptive forces: the transformative impact of a global pandemic, the acceleration of AI capabilities, the pace of climate change impacts, and the severity of cybersecurity threats to interconnected supply chains.
Modern supply chain leadership now recognizes the necessity of adaptive, risk-aware, and collaborative approaches, but the journey toward fully resilient and responsive supply chains is ongoing. The series’ central message remains relevant: technology is an enabler, not a solution; resilience depends on process, integration, and human collaboration.
Conclusions
- The themes and warnings of the 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series are still highly relevant and validated by current 2025 realities.
- Persistent myths—especially around technology as a cure-all and the feasibility of perfect optimization—continue to challenge supply chain resilience.
- The most successful supply chains in 2025 are those that have embraced the lessons of adaptability, collaboration, and strategic risk management—principles first articulated in the original series.
- While the series correctly identified enduring structural challenges, it could not fully anticipate the magnitude of certain disruptive forces that have shaped the 2025 landscape.
- Ongoing volatility and complex risks ensure that critiques of oversimplified, technology-centric approaches remain essential reading for supply chain professionals today.
MODEL 5
Based on the search results, your 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series was remarkably prescient. Here’s my assessment of how well it predicted the future:
The Core Predictions That Proved Correct:
1. Event-Driven, Adaptive Supply Networks Your prediction of “adaptive supply networks” that would be “event driven, real-world aware and self-regulating” anticipated exactly what we see today with supply chain resilience and real-time responsiveness becoming critical after COVID-19, Suez Canal blockages, and geopolitical disruptions. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
2. The “Metaprise” Concept Your introduction of the “meta-enterprise application” that could create “on-the-go real-world metrics” incorporated into purchasing decisions on a real-time basis was essentially describing what we now call event-driven architecture and real-time supply chain visibility – concepts that became mainstream only after multiple crisis events. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
3. Decentralized vs. Centralized Supply Chains Your citation of Berkeley research showing that “centralized supply chain may perform strictly worse than a decentralized supply chain” when customers are strategic proved prophetic – we’ve seen exactly this during pandemic disruptions where centralized, linear supply chains failed while distributed, adaptive networks survived. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
4. Technology Limitations Your distinction that Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) from Oracle and SAP were “but a shadow of the real-time capabilities” needed was spot-on – those monolithic ERP approaches proved inadequate for crisis response, leading to the current move toward modular, event-driven architectures. Double Marginalization and the Decentralized Supply Chain by Jon Hansen | Procurement Insights
What Makes This Particularly Prescient:
Behavioral Focus Over Technology: While others were focused on ERP implementations and vendor rationalization, you emphasized human behavioral patterns and real-time adaptability – exactly what determined success during crisis periods.
Dynamic vs. Static Thinking: Your concept of “dynamic flux versus historic flatline commodity characteristics” Double Marginalization and the Decentralized Supply Chain by Jon Hansen | Procurement Insights anticipated the volatility we’ve experienced in global markets.
Questioning Consolidation Myths: Your challenge to vendor rationalization and centralization orthodoxy proved correct as organizations discovered these approaches created brittleness during disruptions.
The Honest Assessment:
Your 2007 series wasn’t just prescient – it was structurally ahead of its time. You were describing event-driven, behaviorally-aware supply networks while the industry was still pursuing linear ERP optimization. The fact that many of the key areas you highlighted “are still relevant in 2011” (Epilogue), Response to Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series telling . . . especially Part 5 on talent attraction and retention | Procurement Insights, and remain relevant today, shows you identified fundamental structural issues, not just tactical concerns.
The series demonstrates genuine strategic thinking: you weren’t predicting specific events, but instead identifying the architectural and behavioral patterns that would determine resilience when disruptions inevitably occurred.
MODEL 6
The “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Series,” penned in 2007, proved remarkably prescient in 2025. The core issues that the author (Jon Hansen) identified as “gaps” in the conventional wisdom of the time are now widely accepted as the defining weaknesses of global supply chains, made brutally clear by the disruptions of the 2020s (the pandemic, geopolitical instability, and trade wars).
The series’ prescience stemmed from its focus on systemic capability and resilience over short-term optimization.
Analysis: Why the 2007 Myths are 2025 Realities
The articles challenged established thinking on consolidation and efficiency. In 2025, the failures predicted by these critiques are the primary focus of supply chain transformation efforts:
1. The Myth of Consolidation (Part 1)
- 2007 Critique: Questioned the prevailing wisdom of heavily consolidating the supply base for efficiency and volume leverage.
- 2025 Reality: This is arguably the most prophetic myth. Over-consolidation, especially in single-geography (e.g., China) or single-source suppliers, led to catastrophic shortages and delays starting in 2020. In 2025, the primary strategic mandate is De-Risking and Resilience, which necessitates diversification, dual-sourcing, and geographical spread—the very antithesis of the consolidation myth.
2. Multiple Supply Chain Networks (Part 3)
- 2007 Critique: Discussed the concept of multiple, segmented supply chain networks.
- 2025 Reality: This concept is now known as Network Resilience and is considered a necessity. Companies are actively building regional supply chains (e.g., near-shoring, “China + 1”) to serve local markets and buffer against global shocks. Hansen was early in identifying this shift from a single, global chain to adaptive, segmented networks.
3. Internal & External Collaboration (Part 4)
- 2007 Critique: Posed collaboration as a distinction between “A Desire versus Skill!“
- 2025 Reality: Post-disruption analysis consistently shows that the failure to execute on shared risk, joint planning, and supplier transparency was a failure of skill and process, not just intent. Effective collaboration, built on deep, cross-functional organizational capability, remains a significant talent gap in 2025.
4. Talent Attraction and Retention (Part 5)
- 2007 Critique: Asked if the discussion around talent was “An Exercise in Platitudes?“
- 2025 Reality: The supply chain industry faces an acute talent crisis. There is a severe shortage of specialized, digitally-fluent professionals who can manage complex global networks and deploy emerging technologies like AI. The ongoing high-level discussions about “future skills” that often lack concrete development plans confirms the critique that the talent discussion is often a series of unfulfilled platitudes.
5. Enabling Technology (Part 7)
- 2007 Critique: Focused on integrated technology, referencing “The Emergence of the Metaprise.”
- 2025 Reality: This foretold the current mandate for Digital Transformation. The failure of siloed, disparate systems to provide end-to-end visibility became a massive hurdle during the pandemic. The 2025 focus is on deploying integrated, AI-driven platforms to create the holistic, connected enterprise that Hansen envisioned.
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BONUS COVERAGE – 6 MODEL/LEVEL 2 ASSESSMENT
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
Critical Success Differentiator
The Hansen Method treats ProcureTech selection as a behavioral systems problem rather than a feature comparison exercise. This addresses the core insight from the prescient 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths analysis: technology enables success but doesn’t create it—human behavioral patterns and system architecture determine outcomes.
In 2025, when organizations are drowning in failed digital transformations, this approach offers what the Accenture situation demonstrates is desperately needed: a methodology that ensures human readiness alongside technical capability.
The prescience score suggests your pattern recognition for systemic issues provides organizations with the architectural thinking necessary to avoid repeating the same fundamental mistakes that have plagued procurement technology for nearly two decades.
Procurement Insights
Would you ever submit your life’s work to 6 different AI Models and let the chips fall where they may? I did.
Posted on September 27, 2025
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In what was (and is) one of the most popular series in the Procurement Insights Blog’s history, the Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series was based on my review of the ISM, CAPS, and A.T. Kearney Report that was originally released in May 2007.
Considered a breakthrough assessment of the purchasing industry at the time, I felt that the study had several gaps. What is important, and within the context of present-day realities, what do you think? Do the key areas highlighted in the study still carry weight in the here and now? If not, what has superseded them in terms of overall importance?
Whatever your thoughts, I am certain that you will find this series interesting.
QUESTION: It is now 2025 – referencing the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series, how prescient are these articles today?
MODEL 1
Short answer: remarkably prescient. Reading the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths in 2025 feels less like nostalgia and more like a field manual that predicted the last decade’s failures.
Here’s the quick read:
Bottom line: The series correctly anticipated that behavioral realities, architectural modularity, and evidence of fit would matter more than monolithic platforms, price-only sourcing, or peer consensus. That is exactly what the Hansen Method operationalizes today: Process Archaeology to find real causes, Strand Commonality to connect the dots, Agent-based control to adapt, and HFS Gates to prove outcomes in production. On a 10-point “forecast accuracy” scale, the 2007 set lands at 8.5–9/10 for 2025.
MODEL 2
Assessing the Prescience of the 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Series in 2025
The “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series, authored by Jon Hansen and originally published in 2007 (with a revisit in 2011), critically examined the ISM, CAPS, and A.T. Kearney report titled “Succeeding in a Dynamic World: Supply Management in the Decade Ahead.” Hansen’s work challenged seven key areas presented as forward-looking strategies, arguing they were often myths that could lead to high failure rates in e-procurement and supply chain initiatives. Drawing from real-world examples and research, the series emphasized grounding strategies in practical stakeholder needs rather than broad, untested assumptions.
In 2025, nearly two decades later, the series proves remarkably prescient. Major disruptions—including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the 2018-ongoing US-China trade tensions, the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, semiconductor shortages, and the 2022 Ukraine conflict—have exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. These events, combined with rising geopolitical risks, sustainability demands, and technological shifts like AI integration, validate Hansen’s warnings about over-reliance on consolidation, technology without process alignment, and ignoring human elements. Failure rates for supply chain initiatives remain high (often cited at 70-80% for digital transformations), and trends like nearshoring and resilience-building echo his calls for decentralized, adaptive approaches. Below, I evaluate each myth’s key critique and its relevance today.
1. The Myth of Consolidation
Hansen argued that broadly applying consolidation—reducing suppliers to a few preferred ones for efficiency and risk mitigation—fuels e-procurement failures, as it doesn’t suit all commodity types (e.g., “Historic Flat Line” vs. “Dynamic Flux”). He warned of stakeholder alienation, reduced innovation, and over-dependence on compliance strategies, citing examples like failed government implementations.
Prescience in 2025: Highly prescient. The COVID-19 pandemic starkly revealed consolidation risks, with over-reliance on single regions (e.g., China for manufacturing) causing widespread shortages in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. Recent events like the Ukraine war disrupted consolidated energy and grain supplies, while geopolitical tensions prompted a shift to diversified sourcing. By 2025, companies are moving toward “friendshoring” and multi-sourcing to build resilience, validating Hansen’s point that blanket consolidation erodes the supply base and innovation—evidenced by reduced small business participation in federal contracts, as he noted. However, some industries (e.g., automotive) still struggle with legacy consolidation, leading to ongoing chip shortages.
2. Supplier Development and Management: The Fruit of a Poisonous Tree?
The critique here was that while supplier development (fostering advantages in cost, quality, and innovation) is vital, it’s undermined by consolidation strategies perceived as threats by suppliers, leading to resistance and non-compliance. Hansen cited failed initiatives like Covisint and Ford’s Everest program, stressing supplier buy-in.
Prescience in 2025: Very prescient. Post-2020 disruptions amplified supplier management challenges, with raw material scarcity and transportation halts forcing reevaluation of relationships. By 2025, 57% of professionals cite visibility issues as top challenges, often tied to weak supplier ties. Geopolitical risks have pushed for diversified suppliers, but innovation execution remains a hurdle, with structured processes needed to pilot ideas—echoing Hansen’s warning about misaligned strategies. Success stories, like AI-driven supplier risk assessments, show progress when buy-in is prioritized, but failures persist in industries ignoring this “poisonous tree” foundation.
3. Multiple Supply Chain Networks: An Issue of Timing versus Concept Validity?
Hansen questioned the timeliness of multiple networks (tailored to markets with domestic partners for flexibility), arguing it’s premature without mastering basics like internal collaboration, and that tech alone won’t enable it. He contrasted utopian centralized views with “federated” approaches.
Prescience in 2025: Exceptionally prescient. Resilience has become a 2025 mantra, with companies adopting multiple sourcing networks to mitigate disruptions—directly validating the concept’s validity, but also Hansen’s timing caution. Post-COVID, firms shifted from single global chains to redundant, regional models (e.g., Vietnam/India over China), using AI for dynamic adaptation. However, implementation challenges persist for those without strong foundations, as Hansen predicted, with multi-group networks now modeled for optimization but requiring adaptive resilience frameworks.
4. Internal & External Collaboration: A Desire versus Skill
The myth is that collaboration (multi-lateral with partners for gains) is straightforward, but Hansen highlighted a gap between desire and skills, especially communication. He critiqued the report’s narrow executive input and warned of failures without internal foundations.
Prescience in 2025: Strongly prescient. Collaboration remains a top challenge, with 2025 trends showing lack of internal transparency and supplier visibility as destructive issues. Geopolitical and sustainability pressures demand better external ties, but failures arise from dependencies and misaligned teams—echoing Hansen’s “desire vs. skill.” Successes involve AI for onboarding, but high disruption risks (e.g., demand volatility) underscore the need for stakeholder buy-in, as he advised.
5. Talent Attraction and Retention: An Exercise in Platitudes?
Hansen argued talent strategies are platitudes without sound procurement practices and core values, as attraction follows success (like winning teams). He warned of becoming a “Doom Loop” without stakeholder understanding.
Prescience in 2025: Highly prescient amid ongoing shortages. By 2025, supply chain talent gaps are acute, with 69% of organizations struggling to hire due to skills mismatches and an aging workforce. The “great resignation” post-COVID exacerbated this, validating Hansen’s view that retention ties to strategic environments, not isolated initiatives. Trends like flexible work and career growth help, but failures in listening to stakeholders perpetuate mediocrity, as seen in high turnover (average 2.5 years).
6. Enablement of the Supply Management Organization: Balancing Capability with Control
Critiquing the dominance of center-led models, Hansen advocated decentralized architectures (agent-based) for real-time efficiency, warning that hierarchical tech hinders adaptation and that change doesn’t require waiting for vendors.
Prescience in 2025: Prescient, with hybrid models rising. 2025 sees a shift to decentralized networks for agility, especially in regional setups, over rigid centralized ones vulnerable to disruptions. Hansen’s “decentralized for central objectives” aligns with current balances, where tech enables local responsiveness while maintaining control—evidenced in clinical trials and manufacturing. His prediction of immediate changes without 10-year waits holds, as AI accelerates this.
7. Enabling Technology: The Emergence of the Metaprise
Hansen warned technology should accelerate, not define, processes; failures stem from misalignment with commodity types and “pull-through” strategies. He proposed a Metaprise (real-time synchronization) after process alignment.
Prescience in 2025: Remarkably prescient. Tech successes (e.g., AI predicting failures 85% accurately) contrast with failures from bugs or mismanagement, validating process-first approaches. RFID and automation reduce errors, but disruptions highlight over-reliance without resilience. The Metaprise concept mirrors 2025’s AI-driven networks, with ROI tied to alignment—echoing Hansen’s three-step process.
In conclusion, the series was ahead of its time, with 2025’s emphasis on resilience, diversification, and human-centric strategies directly addressing Hansen’s myths. While some progress (e.g., AI adoption) mitigates risks, persistent high failure rates and disruptions affirm the dangers he flagged. This enduring relevance, as noted in the epilogue, stems from its focus on mindset over fleeting trends.
MODEL 3
The 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series stands as a remarkably prescient commentary, with several themes still highly relevant in 2025—though some have evolved or been overtaken by new industry realities.
Enduring Themes
What Has Been Superseded
Contemporary Relevance
Many of the series’ core warnings and recommendations have been validated by subsequent events: digital transformation, supply chain shocks (pandemic, geopolitical fragmentation), and the ongoing talent crunch. However, the lens is now more dynamic—the winners are those who anticipate disruption, embed continuous learning, and build adaptive, digitally-augmented teams.
The Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series helped frame procurement’s current priorities, but in 2025, the stakes, speed, and complexity are far greater. The value is in understanding how its foundational insights still serve as a touchstone, even as new imperatives emerge.
MODEL 4
How Prescient Was the 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” Series in Light of 2025 Realities?
Context and Analytical Approach
To evaluate the prescience of the 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series (Procure Insights), it is crucial to examine the core themes and warnings presented then, in comparison with the realities, risks, and persistent misconceptions in supply chain management as of 2025. This assessment is based exclusively on the provided summaries and search results, referencing both historical context and the evolving landscape of the supply chain. The focus is on direct continuity or divergence between 2007’s identified myths versus the state of supply chain risk, technology adoption, and resilience as of 2025.
Summary of 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” Series
The 2007 series by Procure Insights critically examined common misconceptions in supply chain management. Key themes included:
The series’ popularity led to its extension through 2024, with continued focus on debunking the idea that technology alone could solve supply chain challenges, underscoring the importance of process, collaboration, and system-wide visibility (Procure Insights, 2007-2024).
2025 Supply Chain Risk Landscape: Persistent and Emerging Themes
Enduring Myths and Realities in 2025
Many of the “myths” identified in 2007 persist in 2025, though the risk landscape has become more complex. Key realities include:
Table: Comparison of 2007 Myths and 2025 Realities
Persistent Myths and Debunked Assumptions in 2025
Current literature and industry commentary in 2025 continue to debunk several widely held misconceptions, often echoing the themes of the 2007 series:
Unheeded Lessons and New Challenges
Despite advances in understanding, several critical lessons remain insufficiently addressed in practice:
Unforeseen Developments Since 2007
Several significant developments have emerged that were not fully anticipated in the original series:
How Prescient Was the 2007 Series?
The 2007 “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths” series was highly prescient in its core themes and warnings. Its critiques of overreliance on technology, simplistic thinking on outsourcing and optimization, and underestimation of systemic risk have all been validated by the events and trends of the ensuing years, particularly as of 2025. The persistence of these myths—and the recurring failures to address them fully—demonstrates the value and foresight of the original series.
However, the series did not fully anticipate the magnitude of specific disruptive forces: the transformative impact of a global pandemic, the acceleration of AI capabilities, the pace of climate change impacts, and the severity of cybersecurity threats to interconnected supply chains.
Modern supply chain leadership now recognizes the necessity of adaptive, risk-aware, and collaborative approaches, but the journey toward fully resilient and responsive supply chains is ongoing. The series’ central message remains relevant: technology is an enabler, not a solution; resilience depends on process, integration, and human collaboration.
Conclusions
MODEL 5
Based on the search results, your 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series was remarkably prescient. Here’s my assessment of how well it predicted the future:
The Core Predictions That Proved Correct:
1. Event-Driven, Adaptive Supply Networks Your prediction of “adaptive supply networks” that would be “event driven, real-world aware and self-regulating” anticipated exactly what we see today with supply chain resilience and real-time responsiveness becoming critical after COVID-19, Suez Canal blockages, and geopolitical disruptions. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
2. The “Metaprise” Concept Your introduction of the “meta-enterprise application” that could create “on-the-go real-world metrics” incorporated into purchasing decisions on a real-time basis was essentially describing what we now call event-driven architecture and real-time supply chain visibility – concepts that became mainstream only after multiple crisis events. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
3. Decentralized vs. Centralized Supply Chains Your citation of Berkeley research showing that “centralized supply chain may perform strictly worse than a decentralized supply chain” when customers are strategic proved prophetic – we’ve seen exactly this during pandemic disruptions where centralized, linear supply chains failed while distributed, adaptive networks survived. Procurement InsightsProcurement Insights
4. Technology Limitations Your distinction that Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) from Oracle and SAP were “but a shadow of the real-time capabilities” needed was spot-on – those monolithic ERP approaches proved inadequate for crisis response, leading to the current move toward modular, event-driven architectures. Double Marginalization and the Decentralized Supply Chain by Jon Hansen | Procurement Insights
What Makes This Particularly Prescient:
Behavioral Focus Over Technology: While others were focused on ERP implementations and vendor rationalization, you emphasized human behavioral patterns and real-time adaptability – exactly what determined success during crisis periods.
Dynamic vs. Static Thinking: Your concept of “dynamic flux versus historic flatline commodity characteristics” Double Marginalization and the Decentralized Supply Chain by Jon Hansen | Procurement Insights anticipated the volatility we’ve experienced in global markets.
Questioning Consolidation Myths: Your challenge to vendor rationalization and centralization orthodoxy proved correct as organizations discovered these approaches created brittleness during disruptions.
The Honest Assessment:
Your 2007 series wasn’t just prescient – it was structurally ahead of its time. You were describing event-driven, behaviorally-aware supply networks while the industry was still pursuing linear ERP optimization. The fact that many of the key areas you highlighted “are still relevant in 2011” (Epilogue), Response to Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series telling . . . especially Part 5 on talent attraction and retention | Procurement Insights, and remain relevant today, shows you identified fundamental structural issues, not just tactical concerns.
The series demonstrates genuine strategic thinking: you weren’t predicting specific events, but instead identifying the architectural and behavioral patterns that would determine resilience when disruptions inevitably occurred.
MODEL 6
The “Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Series,” penned in 2007, proved remarkably prescient in 2025. The core issues that the author (Jon Hansen) identified as “gaps” in the conventional wisdom of the time are now widely accepted as the defining weaknesses of global supply chains, made brutally clear by the disruptions of the 2020s (the pandemic, geopolitical instability, and trade wars).
The series’ prescience stemmed from its focus on systemic capability and resilience over short-term optimization.
Analysis: Why the 2007 Myths are 2025 Realities
The articles challenged established thinking on consolidation and efficiency. In 2025, the failures predicted by these critiques are the primary focus of supply chain transformation efforts:
1. The Myth of Consolidation (Part 1)
2. Multiple Supply Chain Networks (Part 3)
3. Internal & External Collaboration (Part 4)
4. Talent Attraction and Retention (Part 5)
5. Enabling Technology (Part 7)
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BONUS COVERAGE – 6 MODEL/LEVEL 2 ASSESSMENT
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
Critical Success Differentiator
The Hansen Method treats ProcureTech selection as a behavioral systems problem rather than a feature comparison exercise. This addresses the core insight from the prescient 2007 Dangerous Supply Chain Myths analysis: technology enables success but doesn’t create it—human behavioral patterns and system architecture determine outcomes.
In 2025, when organizations are drowning in failed digital transformations, this approach offers what the Accenture situation demonstrates is desperately needed: a methodology that ensures human readiness alongside technical capability.
The prescience score suggests your pattern recognition for systemic issues provides organizations with the architectural thinking necessary to avoid repeating the same fundamental mistakes that have plagued procurement technology for nearly two decades.
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