By Jon W. Hansen | Procurement Insights
“There is a growing realization that process, not technology, is the main force behind successfully achieving efficiency and spend rationalization. Credible targets are established and ultimately met through process understanding and refinement combined with the ability to adapt to the real world.”
— From the article “Technology’s Diminishing Role in an Emerging Process-Driven World” by Jon Hansen (Summit Magazine, Sept. 2006)
In September 2006, I predicted the failure we’re witnessing today.
The thesis was simple: process drives success, not technology. Technology is the last piece of the puzzle, not the starting point.
At that time, 75-85% of e-procurement initiatives were failing. The industry’s response? Build more sophisticated technology. Create more analyst frameworks. Develop more Magic Quadrants, Waves, and Solution Maps.
Nearly twenty years later, the failure rate hasn’t moved.
The 2020 Inflection Point: When the Excuse Evaporated
Look at the graphic above.
Around 2020, technology sophistication crossed the failure rate threshold. AI matured. Automation advanced. Agentic systems emerged. The engines became powerful enough.
What should have happened: The failure rate should have declined. The red line should have inverted. Technology was finally “good enough.”
What actually happened: The failure rate stayed flat. 75-80%. The most advanced technology in history — and the same failure rate as 2001.
The excuse that “technology isn’t ready” no longer applies. It never did.
Why Quadrants, Waves, and Solution Maps Tell You Nothing
Magic Quadrants measure vendor capabilities. Forrester Waves score platform features. Solution Maps categorize technology clusters.
None of them measure whether your organization is ready to govern what it deploys.
They tell you what to buy. They don’t tell you whether you’ll succeed.
This is why organizations that led with process understanding — like the Department of National Defence (97.3% accuracy, 23% annual savings for seven years) and Virginia’s eVA ($338 million in savings over 24 years) — succeeded across technology eras.
And why organizations that led with technology selection kept failing, regardless of which quadrant leader they chose.
The Bottom Line
Stop chasing technology.
Start taking ownership of your organization’s processes and governance.
The graphic tells the story: technology evolved, frameworks multiplied, and the failure rate didn’t move. The 2020 inflection point proved what I wrote in 2006 — it was never a technology problem.
It was always a readiness problem.
Until you measure decision rights, governance structures, and organizational capacity to absorb change, you will keep renaming the same failure.
The tools will keep changing. The failure rate won’t.
The methodology for assessing operational readiness — including Phase 0™ diagnostics and Hansen Fit Score™ criteria — is available to subscribers.
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Procurement Insights
20 Years of Quadrants, Waves, and Maps — Same 75-80% Failure Rate
Posted on January 25, 2026
0
By Jon W. Hansen | Procurement Insights
In September 2006, I predicted the failure we’re witnessing today.
The thesis was simple: process drives success, not technology. Technology is the last piece of the puzzle, not the starting point.
At that time, 75-85% of e-procurement initiatives were failing. The industry’s response? Build more sophisticated technology. Create more analyst frameworks. Develop more Magic Quadrants, Waves, and Solution Maps.
Nearly twenty years later, the failure rate hasn’t moved.
The 2020 Inflection Point: When the Excuse Evaporated
Look at the graphic above.
Around 2020, technology sophistication crossed the failure rate threshold. AI matured. Automation advanced. Agentic systems emerged. The engines became powerful enough.
What should have happened: The failure rate should have declined. The red line should have inverted. Technology was finally “good enough.”
What actually happened: The failure rate stayed flat. 75-80%. The most advanced technology in history — and the same failure rate as 2001.
The excuse that “technology isn’t ready” no longer applies. It never did.
Why Quadrants, Waves, and Solution Maps Tell You Nothing
Magic Quadrants measure vendor capabilities. Forrester Waves score platform features. Solution Maps categorize technology clusters.
None of them measure whether your organization is ready to govern what it deploys.
They tell you what to buy. They don’t tell you whether you’ll succeed.
This is why organizations that led with process understanding — like the Department of National Defence (97.3% accuracy, 23% annual savings for seven years) and Virginia’s eVA ($338 million in savings over 24 years) — succeeded across technology eras.
And why organizations that led with technology selection kept failing, regardless of which quadrant leader they chose.
The Bottom Line
Stop chasing technology.
Start taking ownership of your organization’s processes and governance.
The graphic tells the story: technology evolved, frameworks multiplied, and the failure rate didn’t move. The 2020 inflection point proved what I wrote in 2006 — it was never a technology problem.
It was always a readiness problem.
Until you measure decision rights, governance structures, and organizational capacity to absorb change, you will keep renaming the same failure.
The tools will keep changing. The failure rate won’t.
The methodology for assessing operational readiness — including Phase 0™ diagnostics and Hansen Fit Score™ criteria — is available to subscribers.
-30-
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