Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei just published a sobering essay: “The Adolescence of Technology.”
His central warning:
“It is deeply unclear whether our social, political, and technological systems possess the maturity to wield it.”
He’s talking about humanity and AI at the civilizational scale. But the same question applies at the enterprise level — and the data suggests we already know the answer.
Vendors promise transformation — “This time it’s different”
Organizations rush to adopt — “We have no choice”
Governance is skipped — “We’ll figure it out as we go”
80% fail — “We blame the technology”
Next cycle begins — Repeat
The problem isn’t the car. It’s that we keep handing the keys to organizations that never got their driver’s license.
What Amodei Sees at the Macro Level
Amodei identifies five risks of “powerful AI”:
Autonomy risk — Can’t predict the model’s goals and behavior
Misuse for destruction — AI reduces the skill barrier for catastrophic harm
Misuse for seizing power — Surveillance, propaganda, autonomous weapons
Economic disruption — Wealth and power concentrate faster than societies can adapt
Indirect effects — Second-order impacts we won’t forecast until they hit
Every one of these maps to enterprise transformation failures I’ve documented for 27 years. Only the consequences haven’t had a global impact on humanity as a whole.
What I See at the Enterprise Level
Amodei’s Macro Risk
Enterprise Equivalent
Autonomy risk
AI recommendations with no accountability structure
Misuse for destruction
Automation that scales dysfunction faster
Misuse for seizing power
Vendor lock-in that removes organizational choice
Economic disruption
Job displacement without governance transition
Indirect effects
Exceptions, workarounds, shadow processes
The pattern is identical. Capability without maturity. Power without governance. Speed without readiness.
The 1998 Recognition
In 1998, through SR&ED-funded research, I began developing agent-based decision systems that tracked how humans actually make choices under uncertainty.
The core insight then — which remains true now:
Technology doesn’t replace judgment. It stimulates dialogue.
The systems that succeeded weren’t the ones that automated decisions. They were the ones that made decision rights, escalation paths, and accountability structures explicit — before deployment, not after.
That’s what Phase 0™ is built to do.
The AI Driver’s License
Before organizations look at the latest shiny cars — digital twins, AI agents, autonomous planning systems — they need to first get their driver’s license.
The license exam asks:
Who has decision rights when the AI recommends action?
Who is accountable when the model is wrong?
How are exceptions governed?
What verification exists before AI outputs become authoritative?
Can the organization actually act on what the technology reveals?
If you can’t answer these questions, you’re not ready to drive.
The $2.3 Trillion Warning
According to recent research:
$3.4 trillion will be spent on digital transformation by 2026
70% of those initiatives will fail
$2.3 trillion has already been wasted globally on failed transformation programs
$900 billion is wasted annually on projects that don’t deliver
This isn’t a technology problem. It’s a governance problem. And AI will make it worse — because AI scales faster than any technology before it.
A digital twin without governance is an engine without a steering wheel. It will model beautifully and scale dysfunction faster than anything we’ve seen.
Amodei’s Question. Your Answer.
Amodei asks: Does humanity possess the maturity to wield AI?
The procurement version: Does your organization possess the maturity to govern what it adopts?
The 80% failure rate says most don’t.
But it’s not inevitable. The organizations that succeed are the ones that:
Assess readiness before selecting vendors
Define success criteria before deployment
Design governance as architecture, not afterthought
Treat Phase 0™ as the driver’s license exam — not an obstacle to speed
The Bottom Line
We are not headed for a new era of AI-powered transformation.
We are headed for the fifth consecutive tech-cycle disappointment — unless we change the pattern.
The technology is ready. The question is whether we are.
Before you look at the latest shiny car, get your driver’s license.
Jon Hansen is the creator of The Hansen Method® and founder of Hansen Models™, helping organizations prevent the 80% implementation failure rate through Phase 0™ readiness assessment.
Procurement Insights
The AI Driver’s License: Why Procurement Is Headed for Another Tech-Cycle Disappointment
Posted on January 27, 2026
0
By Jon W. Hansen | Procurement Insights
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei just published a sobering essay: “The Adolescence of Technology.”
His central warning:
He’s talking about humanity and AI at the civilizational scale. But the same question applies at the enterprise level — and the data suggests we already know the answer.
Four Decades. Same Pattern. Same Failure Rate.
Sources: Gartner, McKinsey, BCG, IDC, Panorama Consulting
The technology changes. The failure rate doesn’t.
The Driver’s License Problem
Every technology cycle follows the same pattern:
The problem isn’t the car. It’s that we keep handing the keys to organizations that never got their driver’s license.
What Amodei Sees at the Macro Level
Amodei identifies five risks of “powerful AI”:
Every one of these maps to enterprise transformation failures I’ve documented for 27 years. Only the consequences haven’t had a global impact on humanity as a whole.
What I See at the Enterprise Level
The pattern is identical. Capability without maturity. Power without governance. Speed without readiness.
The 1998 Recognition
In 1998, through SR&ED-funded research, I began developing agent-based decision systems that tracked how humans actually make choices under uncertainty.
The core insight then — which remains true now:
The systems that succeeded weren’t the ones that automated decisions. They were the ones that made decision rights, escalation paths, and accountability structures explicit — before deployment, not after.
That’s what Phase 0™ is built to do.
The AI Driver’s License
Before organizations look at the latest shiny cars — digital twins, AI agents, autonomous planning systems — they need to first get their driver’s license.
The license exam asks:
If you can’t answer these questions, you’re not ready to drive.
The $2.3 Trillion Warning
According to recent research:
This isn’t a technology problem. It’s a governance problem. And AI will make it worse — because AI scales faster than any technology before it.
A digital twin without governance is an engine without a steering wheel. It will model beautifully and scale dysfunction faster than anything we’ve seen.
Amodei’s Question. Your Answer.
Amodei asks: Does humanity possess the maturity to wield AI?
The procurement version: Does your organization possess the maturity to govern what it adopts?
The 80% failure rate says most don’t.
But it’s not inevitable. The organizations that succeed are the ones that:
The Bottom Line
We are not headed for a new era of AI-powered transformation.
We are headed for the fifth consecutive tech-cycle disappointment — unless we change the pattern.
The technology is ready. The question is whether we are.
Before you look at the latest shiny car, get your driver’s license.
Jon Hansen is the creator of The Hansen Method® and founder of Hansen Models™, helping organizations prevent the 80% implementation failure rate through Phase 0™ readiness assessment.
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