Here are four simple graphs reflecting research on four simple (okay, maybe not so simple) ideas.
The following is a line chart comparing spreadsheet adoption to AI adoption between 1983 and 2025:
- Spreadsheet Adoption (Blue Line):
- Rapid growth began in the 1980s with the introduction of Lotus 1-2-3 and Excel, reaching ~30% by 1990.
- Continued steady increase through the 1990s and 2000s, nearing saturation (~95–97%) by the 2020s.
- Spreadsheets became a near-universal tool in business and procurement by the mid-2010s.
- AI Adoption in Procurement (Red Line):
- Minimal adoption before 2010.
- Noticeable growth started after 2015, with pilot projects and early implementations.
- Rapid acceleration from 2020 onward, reaching an estimated 60–70% by 2025, as AI becomes a strategic priority for procurement leaders.
Key Takeaways
- Spreadsheets dominated for decades and remain widely used, but their growth has plateaued.
- AI adoption is experiencing exponential growth, with most procurement organizations now piloting or scaling AI solutions.
- By 2025, AI is poised to become a mainstream technology in procurement, though spreadsheets are still nearly ubiquitous.
This chart visually demonstrates the technology transition underway in procurement: from the era of spreadsheets as the foundational tool, to the rapid emergence of AI as the next transformative force.
The following is a line chart comparing spreadsheet adoption to AI adoption between 1983 and 2075:
- Spreadsheet Adoption (Blue Line):
- Rapid growth from the 1980s, peaking at about 97% by 2025.
- After 2025, spreadsheet use declines steadily as AI adoption rises, reaching about 5% by 2075.
- AI Adoption in Procurement (Red Line):
- Minimal before 2015, then rapid growth-reaching 70% by 2025.
- Continues to rise, reaching approximately 95% adoption by 2075.
Key Takeaway:
The chart illustrates a technological transition in procurement: spreadsheets dominate for decades, but as AI matures, it becomes the primary tool, with spreadsheets becoming a niche solution by 2075.
The following is a line chart comparing AI adoption with and without the existence of spreadsheets between 1983 and 2075:
Looking at the third chart, we can analyze what AI adoption in procurement might have looked like if spreadsheets had never existed:
Key Observations
- Earlier Adoption: Without spreadsheets dominating data management, AI adoption would likely have begun much earlier, showing gradual growth starting from 1983.
- Steady Initial Growth: From 1983 to 2000, AI adoption would have experienced steady growth at approximately 1.5% per year, reaching around 25% adoption by 2000.
- Accelerated Middle Period: Between 2000 and 2025, adoption would have accelerated significantly, growing at about 3% annually, climbing from 25% to 100%.
- Full Saturation by 2025: In this hypothetical scenario, AI would have reached complete adoption (100%) by 2025, approximately 15-20 years earlier than in the “with spreadsheets” scenario.
- Sustained Dominance: After 2025, AI would maintain complete market saturation through 2075.
The “Spreadsheet Gap”
The significant difference between the two curves represents what could be called the “spreadsheet gap”-the delay in AI adoption caused by spreadsheet dominance. This gap is particularly pronounced between 2000-2025, where AI adoption with spreadsheets lagged by 40-60 percentage points compared to the spreadsheet-free scenario.
The chart illustrates how spreadsheets may have served as both a technological stepping stone and a barrier to more advanced AI systems in procurement, potentially delaying more transformative automation by decades.
The following is a line chart, but this time with AI adoption assuming the position of spreadsheets, and identifying the likely emerging Procurement technology that will replace it between now and 2075.
The graph displays two key trends in procurement technology adoption over the next 50 years:
- AI Adoption Assuming Spreadsheet Position (Red Line):
- Shows rapid growth from 2025, reaching full adoption (100%) by 2045
- Maintains complete market penetration thereafter
- Mirrors how spreadsheets became ubiquitous in procurement before AI
- Emerging Procurement Technology Adoption (Blue Dashed Line):
- Remains dormant until approximately 2045-2050
- Begins steady growth around 2050
- Reaches 100% adoption by 2075, potentially displacing AI as the dominant technology
The Next Wave: What Will Replace AI?
Based on current technology trajectories, the emerging procurement technology likely to replace AI around 2045-2050 is blockchain-powered autonomous systems that integrate:
- Decentralized procurement networks** using blockchain for unprecedented transparency and trust
- IoT and sensor-based systems providing real-time monitoring across the supply chain
- Quantum computing capabilities enabling complex optimization beyond current AI limitations
- Self-evolving algorithms that not only execute but redefine procurement processes autonomously
This next-generation technology will move beyond AI’s decision-support role to create truly autonomous procurement ecosystems where human involvement becomes minimal and strategic, with procurement activities self-optimizing in real-time based on market conditions, sustainability parameters, and organizational objectives.
The transition will mirror how AI is currently replacing spreadsheets-gradual at first, then accelerating as technology matures and competitive advantage becomes clear.
** In my fall 2004 analyses of a study on the use of web-based applications I made the following observation:
It is my position that a true centralization of procurement objectives requires a decentralized architecture that is based on the real-world operating attributes of all transactional stakeholders starting at the local or regional level. In other words, your organization gains control of it’s spend environment by relinquishing centralized functional control in favor of operational efficiencies originating on the front lines. This is the cornerstone of agent-based modeling. – From Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Revisited (Part 6): Enablement of the Supply Management Organization – Balancing Capability with Control, Procurement Insights (August 20th, 2011)
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
As I had stated at the end of the above 2007 Procurement Insights post, “To sum it up in a simple sentence, and regardless of the application you currently use, you do not have to wait 10 years to effect immediate and beneficial change in your procurement practice!”
In 2025, I will say the same thing I did in 2004: you don’t have to wait until 2075 to effect “immediate and beneficial change in your procurement practice.” The best way to do that is to stop chasing the technology and start using it within the framework of a human-led, agent-based Metaprise model.
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Procurement Insights
If AI replaces spreadsheets, what will eventually replace AI for procurement?
Posted on May 11, 2025
0
Here are four simple graphs reflecting research on four simple (okay, maybe not so simple) ideas.
The following is a line chart comparing spreadsheet adoption to AI adoption between 1983 and 2025:
Key Takeaways
This chart visually demonstrates the technology transition underway in procurement: from the era of spreadsheets as the foundational tool, to the rapid emergence of AI as the next transformative force.
The following is a line chart comparing spreadsheet adoption to AI adoption between 1983 and 2075:
Key Takeaway:
The chart illustrates a technological transition in procurement: spreadsheets dominate for decades, but as AI matures, it becomes the primary tool, with spreadsheets becoming a niche solution by 2075.
The following is a line chart comparing AI adoption with and without the existence of spreadsheets between 1983 and 2075:
Looking at the third chart, we can analyze what AI adoption in procurement might have looked like if spreadsheets had never existed:
Key Observations
The “Spreadsheet Gap”
The significant difference between the two curves represents what could be called the “spreadsheet gap”-the delay in AI adoption caused by spreadsheet dominance. This gap is particularly pronounced between 2000-2025, where AI adoption with spreadsheets lagged by 40-60 percentage points compared to the spreadsheet-free scenario.
The chart illustrates how spreadsheets may have served as both a technological stepping stone and a barrier to more advanced AI systems in procurement, potentially delaying more transformative automation by decades.
The following is a line chart, but this time with AI adoption assuming the position of spreadsheets, and identifying the likely emerging Procurement technology that will replace it between now and 2075.
The graph displays two key trends in procurement technology adoption over the next 50 years:
The Next Wave: What Will Replace AI?
Based on current technology trajectories, the emerging procurement technology likely to replace AI around 2045-2050 is blockchain-powered autonomous systems that integrate:
This next-generation technology will move beyond AI’s decision-support role to create truly autonomous procurement ecosystems where human involvement becomes minimal and strategic, with procurement activities self-optimizing in real-time based on market conditions, sustainability parameters, and organizational objectives.
The transition will mirror how AI is currently replacing spreadsheets-gradual at first, then accelerating as technology matures and competitive advantage becomes clear.
** In my fall 2004 analyses of a study on the use of web-based applications I made the following observation:
It is my position that a true centralization of procurement objectives requires a decentralized architecture that is based on the real-world operating attributes of all transactional stakeholders starting at the local or regional level. In other words, your organization gains control of it’s spend environment by relinquishing centralized functional control in favor of operational efficiencies originating on the front lines. This is the cornerstone of agent-based modeling. – From Dangerous Supply Chain Myths Revisited (Part 6): Enablement of the Supply Management Organization – Balancing Capability with Control, Procurement Insights (August 20th, 2011)
TODAY’S TAKEAWAY
As I had stated at the end of the above 2007 Procurement Insights post, “To sum it up in a simple sentence, and regardless of the application you currently use, you do not have to wait 10 years to effect immediate and beneficial change in your procurement practice!”
In 2025, I will say the same thing I did in 2004: you don’t have to wait until 2075 to effect “immediate and beneficial change in your procurement practice.” The best way to do that is to stop chasing the technology and start using it within the framework of a human-led, agent-based Metaprise model.
30
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