Two Billion-Dollar Strategies Failed. One Didn’t. Here’s Why.

Posted on December 24, 2025

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SUMMARY

Oracle Fusion: Why It Was Created, Why It Struggled

The Genesis (2004-2005): Oracle acquired PeopleSoft for $10.3B (2004) and Siebel for $5.85B (2005)—hostile takeovers that left them with four incompatible enterprise application lines (E-Business Suite, PeopleSoft, JD Edwards, Siebel). Project Fusion was announced as the solution: a unified, SOA-based platform that would merge the best of all four into a next-generation suite.

The Problem:

  • Took 6 years to reach general availability (2005→2011)
  • Key executive John Wookey (head of Fusion strategy) departed in 2007, raising concerns about viability
  • Built on the flawed premise that architectural consolidation = customer adoption
  • Even today, research shows 75% implementation failure rates for Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP
  • The 2007-2008 Procurement Insights posts documented the architectural limitations before most analysts caught on

SAP Safe Passage: Why It Was Created, Why It Collapsed

The Genesis (2005): SAP launched Safe Passage immediately after Oracle’s PeopleSoft acquisition—a program to capture the 2,000+ joint SAP/PeopleSoft customers who were suddenly nervous about Oracle’s plans. SAP acquired TomorrowNow, a third-party support provider, to offer cut-rate maintenance for PeopleSoft/JDE customers as a bridge to SAP migration.

The Collapse:

  • 2007: Oracle sued SAP, alleging TomorrowNow illegally downloaded thousands of Oracle software files and support materials
  • 2008: SAP shut down TomorrowNow
  • 2010: Jury awarded Oracle $1.3 billion (the largest copyright verdict in history at the time)
  • 2014: Final settlement: $357 million + $120 million in legal fees
  • Safe Passage was effectively abandoned; SAP pivoted to S/4HANA

The Pattern: Both programs were acquisition-driven, technology-first strategies that assumed vendor scale could solve adoption problems. Neither addressed organizational readiness.


Hansen Models: Why They Endured

While Oracle and SAP were betting billions on platform consolidation, Hansen’s SR&ED-funded work (1998) was proving a different thesis: readiness precedes technology.

  • 1998-2005: DND deployment achieved 97.3% delivery accuracy—not by buying a better platform, but by designing for agent-based coordination
  • 2007-2008: Procurement Insights archive documented why Fusion and Safe Passage would struggle before they did
  • 2025: The Stanford/Harvard paper validates the same architecture Hansen operationalized 27 years earlier

The graph tells the story: vendor strategies spike and crash; readiness-first methodology compounds.

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Posted in: Commentary