Aaron Beesley’s tracking reveals an extraordinary pattern: 31 Chief Procurement Officer appointments in less than 30 days since January 1st, 2026.
While January is always busy for new hires, this pace tells a different story — one that becomes clear when you map it against 30 years of technology cycles.
The Pattern Nobody Talks About
Every major technology wave since 1995 has followed the same trajectory:
The January 2026 CPO turnover spike isn’t unique. It’s the predictable accountability phase of the Digital Transformation cycle (2018-2022) colliding with the hype phase of AI/Agentic (2023+).
The 24-36 Month Lag
Historical data shows a consistent pattern: leadership turnover spikes 24-36 months after initiative launches — the point at which failure becomes undeniable.
Technology Cycle
Hype Peak
Failure Recognition
Accountability Spike
ERP Era
1997-1999
2000-2002
2001-2003
e-Procurement
2000-2001
2003-2005
2004-2006
Cloud/SaaS
2012-2014
2015-2017
2016-2018
Digital Transformation
2019-2021
2023-2025
2024-2026 ← We are here
AI/Agentic
2024-2025
2027-2029?
2028-2030?
The pattern holds across every era. The technology changes. The cycle doesn’t.
The 2008-2010 Exception That Proves the Rule
Sharp-eyed observers might notice an anomaly in the data: the 2008-2010 period doesn’t follow the pattern.
That’s because two forces collided:
Factor
Impact
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Massive leadership turnover driven by economic collapse, not technology failure
Cost-cutting mandates
CPOs replaced for failing to cut costs fast enough — not for failed tech initiatives
Investment freeze
Organizations froze technology investments; no new initiatives = no initiative failures
Survival mode
Procurement was elevated temporarily as “cost savings heroes.”
The financial crisis interrupted the technology cycle. Cloud/SaaS initiatives that would have launched in 2008-2010 were delayed until 2011-2013, which is why the Cloud accountability phase shows up in 2016-2018 rather than 2012-2014.
When there’s no new technology initiative, there’s no accountability phase. The 2010 anomaly actually reinforces the pattern by showing what happens when external forces override the technology cycle.
Why the 80% Failure Rate Persists
Gabriel Szulanski’s research — cited over 28,000 times — explains why the cycle repeats:
“The major barriers to knowledge transfer are the recipient’s lack of absorptive capacity, causal ambiguity, and an arduous relationship between the source and recipient.”
Translation: Initiatives fail not because the technology is bad, but because organizations lack the readiness to absorb it.
When failure becomes visible:
The initiative is declared “not working”
Accountability shifts to leadership
New leadership is installed to “fix it”
New leadership launches new initiative into the same unprepared organization
Cycle repeats
The turnover isn’t solving the problem. It’s rotating the blame.
What January 2026 Really Represents
The 31 CPO appointments aren’t a sign of investment in procurement. They’re the accountability phase of Digital Transformation overlapping with the early hype phase of AI.
What’s Happening
Cycle Position
Digital transformation initiatives (2020-2022) being assessed
Failure Recognition → Accountability
AI initiatives being launched with “new mandates”
Hype → Early Implementation
CPOs replaced at unprecedented rates
Accountability phase turnover
New CPOs inherit same readiness gaps
Cycle reset without addressing root cause
The Question Aaron Beesley Isn’t Asking
His post asks:
Where is procurement leadership heading?
Which organizations are investing at the top?
Who’s reshaping the function?
The question that predicts success:
Are these new CPOs inheriting organizations with the absorptive capacity to succeed — or are they being set up to fail?
If no one assesses organizational readiness before launching the next initiative, we’ll be tracking another 31 CPO replacements in January 2029.
A Note on This Analysis
This chart is not meant to be a statistical study, but a pattern map derived from 27 years of Procurement Insights archives. Across ERP, e-procurement, cloud, digital transformation, and now AI, the same sequence repeats: hype, implementation, failure recognition, leadership accountability, and reset.
January 2026’s surge in CPO turnover appears less like an anomaly and more like the next accountability phase of the cycle.
The Bottom Line
The technology changes. The cycle doesn’t.
Without addressing organizational readiness — the governance structures, decision rights, and absorptive capacity that determine whether initiatives succeed — the new CPOs will face the same 80% failure rate as their predecessors.
The question isn’t who’s being hired.
The question is whether anyone is assessing whether the organization is ready for what comes next.
Procurement Insights
31 CPO Appointments in 30 Days: Leadership Change or Tech Hype Cycle Reset?
Posted on January 29, 2026
0
By Jon W. Hansen | Procurement Insights
Aaron Beesley’s tracking reveals an extraordinary pattern: 31 Chief Procurement Officer appointments in less than 30 days since January 1st, 2026.
While January is always busy for new hires, this pace tells a different story — one that becomes clear when you map it against 30 years of technology cycles.
The Pattern Nobody Talks About
Every major technology wave since 1995 has followed the same trajectory:
Hype → Implementation → Failure Recognition → Accountability → Leadership Reset
The January 2026 CPO turnover spike isn’t unique. It’s the predictable accountability phase of the Digital Transformation cycle (2018-2022) colliding with the hype phase of AI/Agentic (2023+).
The 24-36 Month Lag
Historical data shows a consistent pattern: leadership turnover spikes 24-36 months after initiative launches — the point at which failure becomes undeniable.
The pattern holds across every era. The technology changes. The cycle doesn’t.
The 2008-2010 Exception That Proves the Rule
Sharp-eyed observers might notice an anomaly in the data: the 2008-2010 period doesn’t follow the pattern.
That’s because two forces collided:
The financial crisis interrupted the technology cycle. Cloud/SaaS initiatives that would have launched in 2008-2010 were delayed until 2011-2013, which is why the Cloud accountability phase shows up in 2016-2018 rather than 2012-2014.
When there’s no new technology initiative, there’s no accountability phase. The 2010 anomaly actually reinforces the pattern by showing what happens when external forces override the technology cycle.
Why the 80% Failure Rate Persists
Gabriel Szulanski’s research — cited over 28,000 times — explains why the cycle repeats:
Translation: Initiatives fail not because the technology is bad, but because organizations lack the readiness to absorb it.
When failure becomes visible:
The turnover isn’t solving the problem. It’s rotating the blame.
What January 2026 Really Represents
The 31 CPO appointments aren’t a sign of investment in procurement. They’re the accountability phase of Digital Transformation overlapping with the early hype phase of AI.
The Question Aaron Beesley Isn’t Asking
His post asks:
The question that predicts success:
If no one assesses organizational readiness before launching the next initiative, we’ll be tracking another 31 CPO replacements in January 2029.
A Note on This Analysis
This chart is not meant to be a statistical study, but a pattern map derived from 27 years of Procurement Insights archives. Across ERP, e-procurement, cloud, digital transformation, and now AI, the same sequence repeats: hype, implementation, failure recognition, leadership accountability, and reset.
January 2026’s surge in CPO turnover appears less like an anomaly and more like the next accountability phase of the cycle.
The Bottom Line
The technology changes. The cycle doesn’t.
Without addressing organizational readiness — the governance structures, decision rights, and absorptive capacity that determine whether initiatives succeed — the new CPOs will face the same 80% failure rate as their predecessors.
The question isn’t who’s being hired.
The question is whether anyone is assessing whether the organization is ready for what comes next.
Related Reading:
The technology changes. The cycle doesn’t.
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