You have better odds at a blackjack table than implementing procurement technology without a readiness assessment. At least the casino publishes the odds.
The Bet You’re Making
Every enterprise transformation is a bet. Time, money, careers, credibility — all on the table.
But unlike a casino, no one publishes the odds.
Until now.
The Odds Comparison
Read that again.
Your odds of successfully implementing procurement technology — without a readiness assessment — are worse than your odds of winning at the blackjack table.
You’d even have better luck at the slot machines. At least there, the house publishes the odds. In the ProcureTech ecosystem, the failure rates are buried.
Where the 15-20% Comes From
This isn’t pessimism. It’s pattern recognition.
- Gartner (2023): 85% of AI projects fail to deliver expected value
- Bain (2024): 88% implementation failure rate
- McKinsey (2022): 70% of digital transformations fall short
- Deloitte CPO Survey (2019): Most companies not satisfied with digital results
- Procurement Insights Archives (2007-2026): 75-85% failure rate documented across ERP, e-procurement, cloud, digital transformation, and AI waves
The number varies by study. The pattern doesn’t.
Five technology waves. Same failure rate. Different vendors, same outcome.
Why the Odds Are This Bad
The ecosystem is optimized for selling race entry, not race readiness.
Everyone profits from the bet. No one checks if you should place it.
That’s why the failure rate hasn’t moved in 30 years.
The Casino Knows Something the Ecosystem Won’t Admit
At a casino:
- The odds are published
- The house edge is known
- You understand what you’re risking
- Losses are attributed to probability, not “change management”
In enterprise transformation:
- The odds are buried
- The failure rates are hidden in footnotes
- You’re told success depends on “execution”
- When it fails, it’s your fault — not the methodology
The casino is more honest than the consulting industry.
What Changes the Odds
The difference between 17% and 85% isn’t luck. It’s sequence.
Phase 0 doesn’t guarantee success. It eliminates the reasons for predictable failure.
The 1998 Department of National Defence deployment achieved 97.3% delivery accuracy. The Commonwealth of Virginia eVA initiative scaled across an entire state government. Both documented. Both named. Both assessed readiness before technology.
That’s not luck. That’s methodology.
The Question No One Asks
Before every RFP, every vendor demo, every consulting engagement, there’s a question that should be asked but never is:
“Is this organization ready to absorb what we’re about to deploy?”
The vendors won’t ask — they need the sale.
The consultants won’t ask — they need the engagement.
The analysts won’t ask — they need the ranking to mean something.
So who asks?
The 20% who succeed ask it themselves. The 80% who fail learn about it afterward — in the post-mortem, when it’s too late.
The House Always Wins — Unless You Assess Readiness First
The ecosystem will keep building new casinos:
- ERP → e-Procurement → Cloud → Digital Transformation → AI → Autonomous Business
Each wave promises better odds. Each wave delivers the same failure rate.
Because the problem was never the technology. The problem is deploying technology before the organization is ready to absorb it.
You wouldn’t bet your salary at 17% odds.
Why bet your transformation?
The Path Forward
Phase 0 exists because the ecosystem won’t ask the readiness question.
The Hansen Fit Score exists because vendor RFPs won’t assess organizational alignment.
The Archives exist because no one else tracks what actually happened to last year’s “Leaders.”
The odds can change. But only if someone checks readiness before deployment.
The casino publishes the odds. The ecosystem buries them.
Now you know both.
What’s your experience? Have you placed the bet — and what were your odds?
Related Posts:
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Procurement Insights
Know Your Odds: Why Practitioners Would Have Better Luck at the Casino
Posted on January 4, 2026
0
You have better odds at a blackjack table than implementing procurement technology without a readiness assessment. At least the casino publishes the odds.
The Bet You’re Making
Every enterprise transformation is a bet. Time, money, careers, credibility — all on the table.
But unlike a casino, no one publishes the odds.
Until now.
The Odds Comparison
Read that again.
Your odds of successfully implementing procurement technology — without a readiness assessment — are worse than your odds of winning at the blackjack table.
You’d even have better luck at the slot machines. At least there, the house publishes the odds. In the ProcureTech ecosystem, the failure rates are buried.
Where the 15-20% Comes From
This isn’t pessimism. It’s pattern recognition.
The number varies by study. The pattern doesn’t.
Five technology waves. Same failure rate. Different vendors, same outcome.
Why the Odds Are This Bad
The ecosystem is optimized for selling race entry, not race readiness.
Everyone profits from the bet. No one checks if you should place it.
That’s why the failure rate hasn’t moved in 30 years.
The Casino Knows Something the Ecosystem Won’t Admit
At a casino:
In enterprise transformation:
The casino is more honest than the consulting industry.
What Changes the Odds
The difference between 17% and 85% isn’t luck. It’s sequence.
Phase 0 doesn’t guarantee success. It eliminates the reasons for predictable failure.
The 1998 Department of National Defence deployment achieved 97.3% delivery accuracy. The Commonwealth of Virginia eVA initiative scaled across an entire state government. Both documented. Both named. Both assessed readiness before technology.
That’s not luck. That’s methodology.
The Question No One Asks
Before every RFP, every vendor demo, every consulting engagement, there’s a question that should be asked but never is:
The vendors won’t ask — they need the sale.
The consultants won’t ask — they need the engagement.
The analysts won’t ask — they need the ranking to mean something.
So who asks?
The 20% who succeed ask it themselves. The 80% who fail learn about it afterward — in the post-mortem, when it’s too late.
The House Always Wins — Unless You Assess Readiness First
The ecosystem will keep building new casinos:
Each wave promises better odds. Each wave delivers the same failure rate.
Because the problem was never the technology. The problem is deploying technology before the organization is ready to absorb it.
You wouldn’t bet your salary at 17% odds.
Why bet your transformation?
The Path Forward
Phase 0 exists because the ecosystem won’t ask the readiness question.
The Hansen Fit Score exists because vendor RFPs won’t assess organizational alignment.
The Archives exist because no one else tracks what actually happened to last year’s “Leaders.”
The odds can change. But only if someone checks readiness before deployment.
The casino publishes the odds. The ecosystem buries them.
Now you know both.
What’s your experience? Have you placed the bet — and what were your odds?
Related Posts:
-30-
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